Man City v Brentford: Back 6/4 City to bounce back & 4/1 Bees Bet Builder

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Saturday 9 May, 17:30
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City to hit back after Everton debacle

It's last-chance saloon time for Man City now - the title race is totally in Arsenal's hands so all they can do is win out and hope for a slip-up, but they must at least hold up their end of the bargain.

They're big 1/31.33 favourites to see-off Brentford at the Etihad - where they've won 12 of the past 15 in the league and won three of four against the Bees. Their 1.4 goals a game against Saturday's opponents is the lowest of any side City have faced under Pep Guardiola though.

Brentford are 7/18.00 outsiders but are still very much fighting for Europe so will pose a threat, so after basically throwing away the game at Everton, Man City will need to see this one out far better if they get ahead again.

Which they should as City have only conceded the first goal five times this season, but they've dropped 17 points from winning positions - an almost unthinkable number under Guardiola - and with only Liverpool scoring more goals in the final 15 minutes the home fans will be chewing finger nails if this is still close down the stretch.

Guardiola's side are usually pretty good at bouncing back though, and at home they're fast starters - leading at half-time in 12 of 16 Premier League games so far this season, winning nine. And with Brentford going in at the break behind in seven away games and losing all of them, then Man City/Man City HT/FT at 5/61.84 looks a sound bet.

But clean sheets have been in short supply for City and Brentford have plenty of attacking threat - especially from set pieces and long throws - so I'd expect Keith Andrews' side to get a goal but fully expect City to get the job done.

Use your head & back 13/102.30 Collins

One thing to know about Brentford is they're clinical, with the best shot conversion rate in the league this season, and Igor Thiago's 22 goals from 79 shots is the fifth-best conversion rate of any 20-goal striker in the last 22 seasons.

So at 2/13.00 anytime scorer, Thiago would be your man for a Brentord goal, while Erling Haaland is the usual odds-on at 4/91.44 and in-form Jeremy Doku 23/103.30 after his two pearlers at Everton on Monday night.

You can combine a Haaland goal with our match tip of a Man City win and both teams to score for a 17/102.70 return via an OddsOnThat special on the Sportsbook.

Outside of Haaland, Thiago (9), Nico O'Reilly (9) and Rayan Cherki (7) have had the most shots on target in the last 10 games for their clubs, and even the low floor of just 1+ shot on target each can be rolled up into a 9/43.25 Bet Builder treble.

Thinking outside the box a little, I'm looking at two of the Brentford centre backs with Nathan Collins 13/102.30 and Sepp van den Berg 8/52.60 to have 1+ headed shot at goal.

They've both had 17 headed goal attempts this season and with City showing some vulnerability in the air they're both probably worth backing to get a header in on goal.

Slight preference here goes to Collins, who has a higher percentage of his goal attempts coming from headers (17/19 compared to 17/22) and has had more efforts on goal recently, with 12 in the last 10 games.

Back Bees duo in 4/15.00 Bet Builder

And to finish off, how about a 4/15.00 Bet Builder on a pair of busy Bees to be very much involved at the Etihad - starting with goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher to make 5+ saves at 8/52.60 - for what would be the ninth time this season for club and country.

He made three saves at home against Man City and had to make five stops away at Arsenal, Spurs and Villa, so five against a smarting City side doesn't look out of the question.

That could be worth a single, but for our Bet Builder we'll double him up with right-back Michael Kayode to have 4+ foul involvements at 4/15.00.

It's a case of irresistible force meets immovable object with Kayode coming up against Jeremy Doku, with both men leading their squads in terms of fouls drawn.

Being at home you suspect Doku will get most fouls in his favour, but you just never know, and either way as long as Kayode is involved he can reap us the rewards.

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