Everton v Manchester City: Back title-chasers to go for goals on Merseyside

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Monday, 20:00
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Man City no longer title favourites

When Manchester City last kicked a Premier League football they had just defeated Burnley to go top of the table, and they were cut to 4/71.57 to win the title.

Fast forward 12 days and Pep Guardiola's men travel to Everton for a must-win game, now six points behind Arsenal and out to 13/102.30 in the title race. In fact, it is now the Gunners who trade at 4/71.57 in the Premier League Winner market.

But there should be a feeling among the City camp that it could, and perhaps should, have been much worse.

Arsenal were cruising at 3-0 at home to a disinterested Fulham side on Saturday evening, and in a title race that could well be decided on goal difference there was an opportunity for Mikel Arteta's men to go and score five or six. But Bukayo Sako was taken off at half-time and the Gunners took their foot off the gas, undoubtedly with one eye on their huge midweek Champions League tie against Atletico Madrid.

It all means that Man City are four goals worse off than Arsenal in terms of goal difference, but win their next two games 2-0 - they play twice before the Gunners play again - then they'd be back on top of the table courtesy of goals scored. It feels like Arsenal missed a trick on Saturday.

The Citizens will arrive at the Hill Dickinson Stadium in fine form having won their last six games in all competitions, and it's no surprise to see them as strong favourites to pick up all three points against an Everton side that has struggled slightly of late.

The Toffees have taken just one point from their last three Premier League games, and at their new home they have won just two of their last 10 matches, those coming against relegated Burnley and a Chelsea team that are on a dreadful run of form.

Away win the obvious call

In the Match Odds market, Man City are the 40/851.47 favourites, and deservedly so. They're the better team, they're in better form than their opponents, and they are fully focussed on chasing down Arsenal at the top of the table.

They're also on an unbeaten run of 18 games against Everton, but here's the killer stat, Man City have won all of their last nine games away to the Toffees. True, this will be the first time that they've played them at the Hill Dickinson, but it's more their impressive away record against Monday's opponents that stands out.

So given all of the above I'm firmly in the away win camp, though as regular readers will know, putting up a 40/851.47 shot as a bet on its own is not my cup of tea.

Despite still being in with a chance of qualifying for Europe, and therefore having plenty of incentive themselves, it's very difficult to make a case for Everton to win, but if you do want to get them on side you can back them at 11/26.50 with the Draw price being available at 15/44.75.

Below you can follow the Match Odds market on the Betfair Exchange, which will update in real time.

Title-chasers will go for goals

It's well known that Man City tend to come good in April and they often go on winning runs that sees them finish the season extremely strongly. They're doing it again this season.

Guardiola's men won all five games in April, scoring 12 goals in the process, and when you consider that they beat Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea in that spell then you can mark up their current form.

Equally impressive was City's away performances in April. True, one of those games was against second-bottom Burnley, but it's no exaggeration to say that they could have won that game by four or five. Man City averaged 23 shots per game in those two away matches - the other being at Chelsea - with an average of 8.5 per game being on target.

We can expect similar numbers here given that Man City won't be just going for the win, they'll be going for as many goals as they can. There will be no feet being taken off the gas in this game.

Sadly for us the markets have latched on to Man City's away shooting statistics so I'm going to hope that Guardiola's men have their shooting boots on and score at least three goals on Monday night. They scored three at Chelsea recently and, as I've already mentioned, they should easily have scored at least three at Burnley.

Trust Haaland to score in 9/110.00 Bet Builder

As well as being on a six-game winning run, Man City have also started to keep clean sheets. They recorded four of them in that six-game spell including three out of three away from the Etihad.

So with hopes high that they can shut Everton out, and the fact that I fancy City to score at least three here, then it makes sense to back Man City -2 in a Bet Builder alongside, who else, Erling Haaland.

The Norwegian has scored five goals in his last five games, he has six goals to his name in his last seven appearances against Everton, and after Igor Thiago reduced the gap at the top of the scoring charts to just two on Saturday, he'll be desperate to get on the scoresheet.

Backing Man City -2 and Haaland to score first pays out at a healthy 9/110.00.

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