English Premier League

Brighton v Manchester City: Back De Bruyne in 5/1 Bet Builder

Pep's side can close the gap on Arsenal again
Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola

Dave Tindall is looking to Kevin De Bruyne to keep the title race in Manchester City's hands on Thursday evening...

Brighton v Manchester City
Thursday April 25, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Seagulls still warrant respect at home

Brighton went into the midweek round of fixtures still clinging onto a top-half place although they have games in hand over their nearest rivals.

The stats can be spun plenty of ways. The negative take is that they've lost five and drawn three of their last 10 games, their only victories a pair of 1-0 home successes over Nottingham Forest in the Premier League and Roma in the Europa League.

And although Arsenal won 3-0 there a couple of weeks ago, Brighton's home form really is pretty impressive. They've lost just two league games at the AmEx all season and only Liverpool and Manchester City have suffered fewer defeats in front of their own fans.

City will be glad of extra day

Six wins from here and Manchester City will have their fifth Premier League title in six years. And they may need them all after Arsenal and Liverpool bounced back from blips to to prove they're not throwing the towel in.

City have four road trips to come through in those final half-dozen games and it's certainly no guarantee that they'll bank the full 12 points from this one and away days at Nottingham Forest, Fulham and Tottenham.

Pep Guardiola praised City's attitude after edging out Chelsea in their FA Cup semi-final but added it was "unacceptable" for his team to be playing on Saturday, three days after their disappointing exit to Real Madrid in the Champions League.

The upside of that short gap is that there's a longer one (Saturday to Thursday) here so City will have chance to recover after looking, and admitting to being, jaded in recent times.

BTTS a good way to boost City price

The fixture list may have worked against City in a different way to the one Pep was complaining about.

Arsenal have played twice since City were diverted by cups and the Gunners have turned a two-point deficit into a four-point lead. City have two games in hand but they're chasing again. If you believe in leaderboard pressure, that heaps extra stress on the champions, especially with Arsenal's goal difference now +56 to City's +44 after Mikel Arteta's men walloped Chelsea 5-0 on Tuesday night.

Of course, City have handled it all through Guardiola's reign and they're just 1.4840/85 to win this one. Brighton are 7.26/1 and The Draw 5.49/2 when looking at the match prices on the Betfair Exchange.

I expect the visitors to get the points but if there's one obvious difference between Arsenal and Man City, it's the former's ability to churn out clean sheets.

And so while Arsenal won 3-0 at Brighton, it seems far more likely that City will concede if they also leave the south coast with three points.

And that boosts the odds with Manchester City and Both teams to Score priced at 8/52.60. That would have landed at the Etihad earlier this season with City winning 2-1.

De Bruyne can make Bet Builder impact

With Erling Haaland and Phil Foden missing training on Tuesday, it may be best to swerve those two in any scorer/assist markets.

But Kevin De Bruyne should start this one and he can make a difference again.

The Belgian has scored three in his latest four games, including a brace at Crystal Palace on his last road trip.

So while many will head to the anytime assist market as the default way to play De Bruyne, his recent goal output makes him a more attractive bet at 23/103.30 to score anytime than [Evs] to assist.

De Bruyne to score, City to win and BTTS pays just over 5/16.00.

Back Man City win, BTTS and Kevin De Bruyne to score at 5/16.00

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Dave's P/L for 2023/24

Staked: 42.5pts

Returned: 28.9pts

P/L: -13.6pts

2022/2023 P/L: +£16.79
2021/2022 P/L: +£8.69
2020/2021 P/L: +£3.06


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