Premier League Tips: Mark O'Haire's MD11 best bets involving Arsenal, Newcastle and Aston Villa

• Merino to make his mark

• Bees too big to ignore

• Goals forecast for Villa Park

• Safe Sub is here for the 2025-26 season - read all about it!

Sunderland v Arsenal: Makeshift Gunners striker to score

Sunderland v Arsenal      
Saturday 8 November, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports 

Arsenal extended their remarkable recent run with a routine Champions League victory at Slavia Prague on Tuesday night. Mikel Arteta's men made it eight successive wins without conceding a goal and the Gunners have now tabled 12 triumphs to nil across their 15 outings across all competitions this season. Historic.

Another Arsenal win alongside a clean sheet holds plenty of appeal at odds-against quotes when the Gunners travel to surprise package Sunderland on Saturday. However, it's difficult to dismiss 12/53.40 quotes on makeshift striker Mikel Merino getting on the scoresheet at the Stadium of Light after his double in midweek.

With Victor Gyokeres absent through injury, plus Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus, Nodi Madueke and Gabriel Martinelli also unavailable for the visitors, Merino appears the default option having now notched nine times for club and country this term in just 1,093 minutes - that's scoring every 121 minutes on average in 2025/26.

The central striking option for a team that's priced up as 4/111.36 shots to win should never be as big as 17/102.70, giving us a great value edge for the Wearside showdown.

Brentford v Newcastle: Oppose poor-travelling Toon

Brentford v Newcastle
Sunday 9 November, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

Newcastle produced another stirring St James' Park performance to overcome Athletic Club in the Champions League on Wednesday to put themselves in the picture for a top-24 finish. However, the Magpies now face a quick turnaround as attention turns towards Sunday's league trip to Brentford with the Toon too short to support.

Whilst Eddie Howe's outfit have almost-always raised their game on Tyneside, away efforts have been questionable - last weekend's dreadful 3-1 defeat at West Ham a fine example of their Jekyll & Hyde nature. Now sitting 13^th in the table, Newcastle are winless away since April and have scored just twice on their travels this term.

With Brentford well-rested, the Bees should sense vulnerability on Sunday. Keith Andrews' uncompromising hosts have posted W3-D1-L1 here in EPL action, dispatching Man Utd, Liverpool and Aston Villa, sharing the spoils with Chelsea and only losing vs Man City. The schedule has been tough, yet Brentford have impressed.

With that in-mind, backing Brentford off a scratch 0 Asian Handicap start stands-out at 2.1411/10. We'll see our stake returned should the game end all-square, only losing our money if Newcastle win. The Magpies have only won once in an away Premier League match that's followed immediately after Champions League duty under Howe.

Aston Villa v Bournemouth: Both to oblige at Villa Park

Aston Villa v Bournemouth
Sunday 9 November, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

Aston Villa have struggled to find the right formula in attack this season. Unai Emery's troops have scored just nine goals in 10 Premier League matches and have returned the third-lowest Expected Goals (xG) output. Star striker Ollie Watkins has managed a solitary strike in nine EPL starts yet the side remain just three points off third.

Those attacking issues remain, though Villa do have a terrific tendency to get on the scoresheet in front of their own supporters, firing only four blanks in 24 home EPL encounters since the start of last term. Surprisingly though, the Second City club have kept just six clean sheets in that same sample, leading to BTTS winners in 67%.

A repeat of Both Teams To Score stands-out at 1.748/11 on Sunday with Bournemouth in town. The Cherries have notched themselves in 21 of 24 away days going back to the beginning of 2024/25, recording only three shutouts of their own - a massive 19 (73%) of those contests paid-out for BTTS backers, including four of five on the road this season.

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