EFL Championship

Leeds v Southampton: Back 11/2 Bet Builder in Championship Play-Off Final

Wembley Stadium
Leeds and Southampton will meet at Wembley Stadium

George Elek from Not The Top 20 is back to preview Sunday's Championship Play-Off Final between Leeds and Southampton, and is calling foul play for his bet builder...

  • Under 2.5 goals has copped in 10 of the last 11 Championship Play-Off Finals

  • Aribo was fouled four times when these two met three weeks ago

  • Rutter is the most fouled player in the league


Leeds v Southampton
Sunday, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

The final game of the EFL season sees two clubs, who believe they belong in the Premier League, have it out at Wembley to decide which can return to the promised land at the first time of asking.

In recent years there have been a fair few surprise participants in the Championship Play-Off Final, but the only shock this season is maybe that neither Leeds or Southampton were able to win promotion automatically, with Ipswich ensuring the all three relegated teams didn't return to the Premier League at the first time of asking.

Neither side ended the regular season in great form, but will come into this full of confidence having dispatched of their opponents in the semi-final with relative ease. Both have been pretty dominant at home this season and that showed, winning the second legs 7-1 on aggregate after two 0-0 draws to start.

Leeds are the favourites to win this and progress, but I think there are enough concerns about their form away from Elland Road to give them a swerve. Southampton have already done the double over them in the regular season, although one of those was on final day when it had become evident fairly early on that neither had anything to play for.


Leg 1: Under 2.5 Goals

So we'll start with a goals angle, with backing unders in this EFL finalé genuinely being the way to play it. Under 2.5 has copped in 10 of the last 11 renewals, and it's understandable why it's consistently cagey given what's at stake.

We saw Leeds and Saints shut up shop effectively in the first legs so, despite the array of attacking talent on show, it would be no shock to see defences come out on top here as Daniel Farke and Russell Martin look to play it safe.


Leg 2: Joe Aribo to be fouled 2+ times

Aribo has made the third central midfield spot his own after the injury to Stuart Armstrong, and is regularly fouled due to his willingness to run with the ball.

We can't glean a great deal from the dress rehearsal from these two a couple of weeks ago, but Aribo was fouled four times which might give us an insight as to how Leeds plan to deal with his threat. That was the fourth time in nine games that he was fouled 3 or more times, so the 2+ line really appeals.


Leg 3: Georgino Rutter to be fouled 3+ times

If Aribo is often fouled due to his dribbling skills, Rutter takes that to a whole new level. He's the most fouled player in the league, both per 90 and in total. The 113 times he's been taken down is 18 more than Jack Clarke in second.

We saw a glimpse of how Saints will look to stop Rutter in the final league game, with Flynn Downes' job to stop him in any way he can. He was fouled three times in just over an hour that day, which was the fifth consecutive games this bet would have landed.


Now read Mark O'Haire's verdict on the Championship play-off final!


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