Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions from Serie A ahead of a Turin derby with implications at both ends...
Milan to cement second spot
After ending their recent slump with a win in Florence last weekend, Milan are back at home, where they are averaging 2.03 xGF per game but without the results to match. Visitors Sampdoria lost the reverse fixture in December - a second successive defeat against the Rossoneri - and Infogol's model anticipates a home win at the San Siro.
Atalanta to grind out a home win
Atalanta's 2.14 xGF per game at home is one of the league's best returns, and they'll need to call upon their attacking reserves against an Udinese side with the best xGA record outside the top six. Infogol backs the hosts to prevail in a low-scoring clash, and that would be enough for Gian Piero Gasperini's side to keep their place in Serie A's top four.
Benevento to move one step closer to safety
A surprise win at Juventus has given Benevento some breathing room in the battle against the drop, and they'll be keen to avoid defeat against fellow bottom-six side Parma. There's little to choose between the two sides, according to Infogol, and a repeat of the draw in the reverse fixture would be a better result for Pippo Inzaghi's side than for the visitors.
Cagliari to pick up priceless three points
It is beginning to look like three from four for the relegation spots, but Cagliari have a chance to keep a couple more teams looking over their shoulders if they can beat Verona. After an early bounce under Leonardo Semplici, the Sardinians will be desperate for three points against a Verona side coming off three straight league defeats, and Infogol gives the hosts a narrow edge in what could be a tense game.
Iachini to make winning return at Fiorentina
Cesare Prandelli's resignation has seen Fiorentina turn to former boss Giuseppe Iachini once more, and the Viola manager begins his second spell with a trip to fellow mid-table side Genoa. The visitors have been better than their position suggests, and Infogol's model makes them narrow favourites against a team averaging 1.65 xGA at home.
Lazio to maintain solid home record
Spezia continue to have one of Serie A's shakiest away defences, averaging 1.91 xGA away from Stadio Alberto Picco and will be up against it at the Olimpico against a Lazio side with eight home wins from 13. Two first-half goals gave Simone Inzaghi's side a platform for victory in the reverse fixture, and Infogol's model suggest they're likely to complete a league double over their opponents.
Napoli to add to Crotone's misery
With an eight point gap to safety, only a minor miracle will see Crotone preserve their Serve A status for another season. A trip to Napoli is expected to only end one way, with Infogol backing the hosts to take advantage of a visiting defence averaging 2.07 xGA per game on the road and stay in top-four contention in the process.
Roma to punish Sassuolo's shaky home record
Sassuolo have averaged 1.62 xGA across their last six games, and manager Roberto De Zerbi will surely be worried about defensive frailties ahead of the visit of free-scoring Roma. While the Giallorossi aren't quite as strong away as they are at home, they're expected to take advantage of their opponents' weakness at the back to emerge with all three points.
Juve to pick up much-needed derby win
The Turin derby is a game with huge implications at both ends of the table, with neither team in a wholly comfortable position heading into the final quarter of the season. Juve needed a late turnaround to win the reverse fixture, and Infogol anticipates both sides finding the net once more - albeit with the champions taking the points to keep their neighbours I the relegation shake-up.
Inter to continue title charge
Former Inter defender Siniša Mihajlović is the latest man tasked with stopping the Nerazzurri in their tracks, but his Bologna side are expected to come up short. The Rossoblù are coming off back-to-back wins in the league, but Infogol tips that run to end against a team whose run for the title looks like being a case of when and not if.