Bundesliga Tips: Gladbach and Leipzig to keep climbing in Gameweek 9

Jonas Hofmann Borussia Mönchengladbach
Jonas Hofmann's equaliser last weekend extended Borussia Mönchengladbach's unbeaten run

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as two of this season's underachievers look to make up ground...

"Gladbach have been better than their league position suggests, and have finally begun to pick up the results their performances have warranted."

Mainz to rebound after run of defeats

Mainz v Augsburg
Friday, 19:30
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Mainz's numbers have been better than their bottom-half berth suggests, while Augsburg's 16th place berth is more in line with how they've been playing this term. With that in mind, a home win looks like the most likely outcome, and Infogol agrees, giving Bo Svensson's side a 55% chance of victory against opponents averaging a hefty 1.85 xGA per game this season and 2.33 across their four away games.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Dortmund to bounce back after European setback

Arminia Bielefeld v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 14:30
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A 4-0 loss at Ajax will have been humbling for Borussia Dortmund, but they remain heavy favourites to return to winning ways when they travel to SchücoArena. Arminia are still yet to win in the league this season, and rank dead last in the Bundesliga for xGF with just 0.81, so it's easy to foresee a repeat of last season's away win for the team currently second in the league.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.008/1

Bayern to brush Hoffenheim aside

Bayern Munich v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Bayern have been on fire in front of goal this season, averaging 2.98 xGF per game and scoring at an even higher rate than that. Visitors Hoffenheim have improved defensively compared to last season, but Infogol doesn't expect them to be able to contain opponents who have 16 goals from four home league games this term and put four past Sebastian Hoeneß's side in last season's league meeting.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-1 @ 11.0010/1

Leipzig to continue climbing table

RB Leipzig v Greuther Fürth
Saturday, 14:30
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Despite their struggles in Europe, Leipzig have found some form domestically - especially at Red Bull Arena, where Jesse Marsch's side have nine points and an average of 2.5 xGF per game. That run should continue with few obstacles against a Fürth side with the league's second-worst away xGA return and 13 in the goals against column on their travels, and the RBL front-line will be licking their lips ahead of the meeting.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-1 @ 10.5019/2

Freiburg's unbeaten run to finally end

Wolfsburg v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Freiburg have continued to stave off defeat this term, and were good value for their point against RB Leipzig last weekend, but Infogol's model expects their run to end at the Volkswagen Arena. Wolfsburg won the corresponding fixture 3-0 last season and, despite a tough recent run, can benefit from home advantage to sneak a victory and draw level on points with their opponents.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1

Van Bommel Wolfsburg 1280.jpg

Gladbach to extend unbeaten run to four

Hertha Berlin v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 17:30
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Gladbach have been better than their league position suggests, and have finally begun to pick up the results their performances have warranted. The visitors took a point from this fixture last season despite playing most of the match a man down, and Infogol expects their away average of 2.0 xGF - the second highest in the entire league - to see them through against the side with the Bundesliga's worst defensive record.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

Leverkusen to bounce back after Bayern thrashing

Köln v Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday, 14:30
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Both of these sides suffered humbling defeats last weekend, each conceding five goals after allowing their opponents to dominate, but Leverkusen look the more likely to deliver an instant response based on Infogol's model. Bayer did the double over Köln last season without conceding a goal and, while things may be closer this time around, an away win is still considered the likeliest outcome.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.008/1

Union's winning run to end in Stuttgart

Stuttgart v Union Berlin
Sunday, 16:30
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Union Berlin come into this game off the back of three successive league wins, though their performances suggest they might be a little fortunate to have taken maximum points from all three fixtures. Urs Fischer's side sit six points north of their weekend opponents, who rescued a late draw in the corresponding fixture last season, but Infogol's model gives the home side a slight edge in what could be a close-run game.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1

Bochum to fail to build on maiden win

Bochum v Eintracht Frankfurt
Sunday, 18:30
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Bochum's win at Greuther Fürth last weekend was essential, but they may find it tough to build on that result when they welcome Eintracht Frankfurt to Vonovia Ruhrstadion. Thomas Reis' side are averaging 2.03 xGA per game this season, suggesting the visitors can expect plenty of chances to find the net, and it's an opportunity for the visitors to properly kick-start their season and push towards the top half.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

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