Bundesliga Tips: Bayern to win top-of-the-table clash in Gameweek 8

Robert Lewandowski Bayern Munich Bayer Leverkusen
Robert Lewandowski shot down Bayer Leverkusen back in December

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the top two and bottom two meet this weekend...

"Bayern Munich boss Julian Nagelsmann will want an instant response after his team suffered its first defeat of the season last time out, and a trip to the BayArena isn't the easiest task."

Hoffenheim to end Köln's unbeaten run

Hoffenheim v Köln
Friday, 19:30
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Köln's win over Greuther Fürth before the international break made it five without defeat, but Infogol's model anticipates that coming crashing down when they face Hoffenheim at PreZero Arena. The corresponding fixture last season ended 3-0 to the hosts, with Andrej Kramarić scoring twice, and they can build on a first home league win of the season against Wolfsburg at the end of last month.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Dortmund to hand Mainz a third straight loss

Borussia Dortmund v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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Mainz can count themselves unfortunate to have lost their last two matches, suffering single-goal defeats in even contests against Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen, but a trip to Signal Iduna Park isn't what any team struggling for results would want. Dortmund's victory over Augsburg last time out wasn't as close as the 2-1 scoreline suggests, and a perfect home start for Marco Rose's side - with a 2.58 xGF average - suggests they'll be hard to stop.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-1 @ 12.0011/1

Eintracht to build on surprise win in Munich

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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While Eintracht Frankfurt's win at the Allianz Arena last week wasn't entirely reflective of the run of play, it nonetheless provided an important three points after a run of draws. Oliver Glasner's side needed a late flurry to win this match last season under his predecessor Adi Hütter, but Infogol's model believes they can extend their unbeaten league run to seven with a second straight victory in the competition.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 8.6015/2

Leipzig to blunt Freiburg

Freiburg v RB Leipzig
Saturday, 14:30
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Freiburg have been one of the surprise packages of the Bundesliga season so far, and results in the last gameweek mean theirs is the last remaining unbeaten record in the Bundesliga. Christian Streich's side were dominant in their last home game against Augsburg, but Infogol's model still favours a Leipzig side averaging 3.28 xGF across their last two games in the league.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 8.808/1

Fürth to win bottom two battle

Greuther Fürth v Bochum
Saturday, 14:30
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Even a win won't be enough to lift Greuther Fürth out of the bottom three, but victory over 17th-place Bochum is essential if they want to breathe live into a season which has started abysmally. Stefan Leitl's side lost at home to Bochum in 2. Bundesliga last term, but Infogol's model backs them to gain a modicum of revenge in what could well be a tight game at Sportpark Ronhof.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2

leitl-furth-1280.jpg

Wolfsburg to pip Union in close contest

Union Berlin v Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Union's 1.17 xGA is among the lowest in the league this term, building on their numbers from last season, but Mark van Bommel's Wolfsburg are narrow favourites to become the first team this season to beat them at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. The visitors will need to tighten up at the back themselves if they want to prevail, and there it little to choose between two sides who played out a 2-2 draw here last season, but Infogol gives Van Bommel's men a slight edge.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

Gladbach to claim fourth win in five

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Stuttgart
Saturday, 17:30
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Things began to kick into gear for Gladbach before the international break, with an average of 1.93 xGF per game giving an indication of where their strengths lie. While both these teams are perhaps lower in the table than they deserve to be, Infogol's model believes Adi Hütter's side can gain revenge over opponents who denied them at Borussia-Park at the tail end of the 2020-21 season.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 8.6015/2

Bayern to bounce back from first defeat

Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
Sunday, 14:30
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Bayern Munich boss Julian Nagelsmann will want an instant response after his team suffered its first defeat of the season last time out, and a trip to the BayArena isn't the easiest task. The champions needed a stoppage-time winner from Robert Lewandowski to claim the points in last season's meeting, but Infogol's model gives them a solid chance against opponents whose lofty league position betrays a 1.9 xGA average across their three home games.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Augsburg to create gap to bottom three

Augsburg v Arminia Bielefeld
Sunday, 16:30
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Augsburg sit just one place and one point north of the relegation play-off spot, but a home meeting with winless Arminia can help give them some breathing room. The visitors are averaging 1.9 xGA on the road so far this term, and while they claimed a point from this fixture last season, Infogol's model considers the hosts more likely to end up victorious at WWK Arena.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2

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