Bundesliga Tips: Bayern to keep top spot

Kevin Hatchard
16 March 2023
3 min read

Xabi Alonso still has work to do to make Bayer Leverkusen competitive at the top level

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

The title race is still tight in the Bundesliga, and Kevin Hatchard thinks Bayern Munich will produce a statement win before the international break.

Champions to boss Bayer

Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
Sunday 19 March, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

With just one game to go until the international break, and Der Klassiker against Borussia Dortmund on the horizon, this is an important weekend for Bayern Munich. They flexed their muscles on the international stage with a brutal dismissal of PSG and their superstars over two legs to reach the Champions League quarter-finals, and they go into this weekend two points clear of Borussia Dortmund in the race for the Bundesliga title.

Bayern don't have as many points as they had at this stage of last season, but they do have the best attack in the division and the best defensive record. The Rekordmeister have only lost twice in the league this term, and most observers and pundits still believe they will be lifting that famous trophy at the end of the campaign.

Bayer Leverkusen have improved in terms of their form in recent weeks, but they had a draining Europa League trip to Hungary in midweek to face Ferencvaros, and for all the talk of their progress under coach Xabi Alonso, they have won just three of their last seven Bundesliga matches. Against the big hitters, Die Werkself have struggled - they lost 4-0 at Bayern in September, 2-0 at RB Leipzig and they have lost home and away against Borussia Dortmund without scoring in either match.

Bayern have won six of their last seven games against Leverkusen, and I fancy them again here. We can back the champions -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9210/11, and that seems reasonable to me.

Swabian showdown should be fun

Stuttgart v Wolfsburg
Saturday 18 March, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Stuttgart were Bundesliga champions as recently as 2007, but since then they have found life at the top a lot tougher. The days of Mario Gomez bullying defences and Thomas Hitzlsperger (the Hammer) smashing the ball past goalkeepers from long range are long gone, and since lifting the Meisterschale, VfB have been relegated twice. Considering they have only spent four seasons in total outside the top flight in the Bundesliga era, it shows what a tough time it has been for the southern giants.

Experienced firefighter Bruno Labbadia is trying to prevent a third relegation in the 21st century, but since arriving he has only delivered one win in nine league matches. For a coach who is generally a good organiser, Labbadia has found clean sheets hard to come by - Stuttgart have only managed one shut-out since he arrived, and that was in a 3-0 win over a Köln side that was hungover after Karneval (coach Steffen Baumgart has admitted that this week).

Wolfsburg are pushing for a European spot, and given that seventh spot might be enough for continental qualification, Niko Kovac's team still has plenty to play for. Die Wölfe have only lost three of their last 17 Bundesliga matches, and they have been scoring freely on the road, rattling in 15 goals across their last seven road matches in the top flight.

I'm really surprised that Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 2.021/1 here. Stuttgart have seen 14 of their last 20 Bundesliga matches feature three goals or more, while an Over 2.5 Goals bet has landed in 13 of Wolfsburg's last 20.

Ruhr rumble to entertain

Bochum v RB Leipzig
Saturday 18 March, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Going into this fascinating clash, Bochum have just produced one of their best performances of the season, while Leipzig have just delivered one of their worst. Bochum came up with pretty much the perfect away performance to win 2-0 at Köln last weekend, while Leipzig were destroyed 7-0 by Manchester City in the Champions League.

Leipzig's display against City at the Etihad was desperately disappointing. They were consistently sloppy in their set-piece defending, they wilted under the pressure of the City press, and when they did have chances to make something happen in attack, their play was panicky and inaccurate. Timo Werner was ill in the build-up, and didn't look ready to compete on the big stage.

Bochum have the worst defence in the league, but I think they'll pose a threat of their own at the other end, so I'll use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to back Over 2.5 Goals and Over 6.5 Corners at 2.0811/10. Both teams' league games have an average of 8.3 corners per match, and while Leipzig have had nine of their 12 matches in all competitions feature at least three goals, Bochum have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land in 16 of their 24 top-flight matches.