After successfully laying odds-on favourites for the second time this week, Kev's hoping to wrap up with a goalfest.
"Three of Leipzig's last four games have featured at least five goals, while Werder have scored nine times in their last four home matches."
Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig
Sunday April 15, 17:00
Live on Betfair Live Video
Leipzig's defensive woes to continue
Dijon cut the mustard again last night, as they held odds-on favourites Nantes to a 1-1 draw in Ligue 1. It puts us back in profit for the week, but now we need to stay in the black with a winner from Germany.
We started the week with RB Leipzig, who let us down badly with a 4-1 home defeat against Leverkusen. They have since been thrashed 5-2 by Marseille in the south of France, a result which ended their Europa League adventure at the quarter-final stage. Teenage defenders Ibrahima Konate and Dayot Upamecano are having a lot of responsibility placed on their shoulders, and there were huge gaps in midfield in both matches.
Leipzig have dropped out of the top four, and their situation is unlikely to improve against a Werder Bremen side that still hasn't lost at home under coach Florian Kohfeldt. The former reserve-team boss has done a sterling job in lifting the northern club out of relegation danger, but any lingering hopes of a late push for Europe were dashed by last weekend's 2-1 defeat at Hannover.
I fancy goals here. Five of Bremen's last nine games in all competitions have featured at least four goals, as have three of Leipzig's last four outings. Leipzig have to push for the win to get them back in contention for Champions League qualification, and the way they are playing, this could be an incredibly open game.
Werder have rattled in nine goals in their last four home matches, but they've only kept two clean sheets in their last seven games at the Weserstadion.
I'll plump for Over 3.5 Goals here at [2.78].
Points Staked: 61
Points Returned: 62.34
P/L: +1.34 points