Football Bet of the Day: Sass to inject some pizazz

Serie A stunner on the cards

Udinese v Sassuolo
Saturday 06 March, 17:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

It was left very, very late, but Sebastian Coates came through for us and Sporting last night, as his 93rd-minute winner gave us the result we needed. Sporting beat Santa Clara 2-1, and crucially stayed under the 3.5 goals line.

With a profit for the week locked in, we head to Italy. The market doesn't expect Udinese's Serie A clash with Sassuolo to be much fun, but I disagree.

I can see why Over 2.5 Goals is trading at odds-against. The reverse fixture was a goalless draw, and seven of Udinese's last eight games at home have featured fewer than three goals. So far, so discouraging, but wait a moment. Here comes the science bit.

Sassuolo are delightfully crazy (ok, that's not very scientific) and their open style could force Udinese into an entertaining contest. They just played out a thrilling 3-3 draw at Napoli, and nine of their last 12 games in Serie A have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land. If you look at their away games in the top flight, five of the last six have featured three goals or more.

Six of Udinese's last 12 games have contained at least three goals, and the Infogol stats show they are creating chances, with an Expected Goals For figure of just over 34, seven goals higher than their actual total. They have put up an xGF figure of at least 1.0 in 12 of their last 17 league games.

I'll keep this simple - back Over 2.5 Goals at just above evens.