"He bumped into one there in the shape of the winner, who is now rated 10lb higher after following up at the same course last time, so he must be considered well handicapped off just 3lb higher."
Get the best bets from our experts for today's horse racing at Royal Ascot, the start of the US Open golf, Wimbledon warm-up tennis and football in Brazil...
US Open, from 11:45 Thursday
We're off to Brookline for the third golf Major of the year and Steve Rawlings is here with the lowdown ahead of the 122nd US Open.
Steve Rawlings says: "This major tends to be an almighty grind, making headway up the leaderboard as the week progresses is incredibly tough, and up with the pace is where you need to be in a US Open.
"Rahm sat tied for sixth and three off the lead with a round to go last year but that was as far back as he'd been all week long and most winners are in the van throughout.
"The 2021 winner, DeChambeau, sat second after rounds two and three and he was the seventh US Open winner in-a-row, and the 11th in 13 years, to sit first or second with a round to go. The last 23 US Opens have been won by someone within four strokes of the lead with a round to go...
"With four wins in 13 months (including two in his last six starts), 25-year-old Sam Burns ticks plenty of form and trend boxes this week and I was quite surprised to see his price hold up as last week's event played out.

"The world number nine ranked first for Greens In Regulation when finishing tied for fourth in Canada and he looks a very fair price at 32.031/1."
Find out where our other experts are putting their money here.
Steve's bet: Back Sam Burns @ 32.031/1
Nicoloz Basilashvili v Oscar Otte, from 12:45
Round two of the Cinch Championships and the Terra Wortmann Open concludes on Thursday and Sean Calvert is back to preview day four...
Sean says: "There's nothing bet-worthy in Queen's again though and the two wagers that appeal more are underdogs Nikoloz Basilashvili and Tallon Griekspoor in Halle.
Basil has that superb record in Germany (won 18 of his last 24) and he won't mind the role of underdog, with this price on Oscar Otte looking too short for me.
Otte made the semis last week in Stuttgart, but he had a fair chunk of fortune in doing so and there's a hint of recency bias in this price in my view.
Sean's bet: Back Basilashvili to @ 2.01/1
King George V Stakes, 15:05
"I liked the way he finished his race off back up to 1m5f at Navan last time, and I think his mark of 90 is fair. Perhaps it is only what you would expect given you couldn't rate that form that highly, but he is a very likeable colt and a very well-bred one too, being a brother to Snowfall and Alfred Munnings. Again, we'd be hopeful here. There seems to be a lot of upside to him."
Ryan's Ride: Back New Foundland @ 8.415/2
Britannia Stakes, 17:00
"Hopefully, I will be pouring myself a large one after Koy Koy wins the Britannia at 17:00. Back him at 25/1 win-only with the Betfair Sportsbook.
"He has course form having finishing second to Saga (more of him in a bit) here last season, he bolted up at Newbury afterwards, and he ran a hugely encouraging race on his return at Chester when a length second to Outgate.
"He bumped into one there in the shape of the winner, who is now rated 10lb higher after following up at the same course last time, so he must be considered well handicapped off just 3lb higher."
Tony's bet: Back Koy Koy @ 26.025/1 win-only with Betfair Sportsbook
Botafogo v Sao Paulo, 20:00
It's an all Brazilian Daily Acca for Paul Robinson today, with his 13/2 odds boost coming from Serie A starting with Sao Paulo on the road...
Paul says: "Botafogo have started to struggle since their promotion from Serie B, as four defeats in a row has seen them drop to 17th place.
"Sao Paulo are in fourth, and they are unbeaten in 15 in all competitions. With 11 matches gone in the league, they have only lost once.
"Despite their successes, the visitors have only kept two clean sheets from their last six - with this selection landing in the other four. It's also worth noting that their away scorelines this season have been five 1-1 draws and a 3-1 defeat."
Paul's bet: Back BTTS in all of Botafogo v Sao Paulo, Palmeiras v Atletico GO & Avai v Fortaleza @ an Odds Boost of 7.513/2