ATP Halle Tips: Basilashvili looks value as underdog against Otte

Sean Calvert
16 June 2022

Basilashvili's record in Germany is exceptional

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Round two of the Cinch Championships and the Terra Wortmann Open concludes on Thursday and Sean Calvert is back to preview day four...

"Otte made the semis last week in Stuttgart, but he had a fair chunk of fortune in doing so and there’s a hint of recency bias in this price in my view."

We're set for more fine weather for our two grass court ATP 500 events this week, with eight matches scheduled for Thursday at Queen's Club and Halle.

Starting at Queen's and Ryan Peniston has a decent chance to make the quarters on Thursday, with the British leftie taking on aggressive clay courter Francisco Cerundolo, but I think Peniston will need to come to the net more than he did against Ruud.

Cerundolo is capable on a hard court, as he showed in making the Miami semi final (although he did have a rather fortunate run), and the Argentine could win this if he makes it a baseline battle.

Ryan Peniston Nottingham 2022.jpg

Peniston's route to victory here is to target the weaker backhand side of Cerundolo and finish points off the at the net and if he does that he should win, but it's easier said than done and I wouldn't bet on it at around 1.75/7.

It looks like Sam Querrey has decided that he's going to put some effort in during the grass swing after a spell of extreme mediocrity in which he went 2-15 win/loss between last year's Majorca final and the start of the 2022 grass swing.

Clearly, Querrey has targeted this short spell as the only time in the season worth bothering with, and he faces an opponent in Filip Krajinovic who's been vulnerable to big servers in his career.

The Serb is 4-12 win/loss in his career against the big servers in my database, but he did beat Querrey and John Isner at the Paris Masters in 2017 when he made the final as a qualifier.

It's difficult to back Krajinovic here, based on his record on grass, which is poor: 1-4 win/loss at main level and 8-12 at all levels and assuming Querrey continues the form of the last week or so he should win this, but I'm not backing Querrey at this price.

Berrettini could be tested by Kudla's best level

Denis Kudla has beaten Matteo Berrettini on three previous occasions, but none since February 2019 when Berrettini was outside the top-50 in the world (Berrettini was still a 1.384/11 favourite that day).

I just wonder if the Italian is getting tired or sore, having not played for three months prior to his comeback from hand surgery last week in Stuttgart and now he's straight back into action this week at Queen's.

It's a distinct possibility and if that is the case, Kudla is more than capable of taking advantage here.

The American has some solid grass court numbers: a 101.3 service points won/return points won total and a 102.3 hold/break total shows that he's a decent operator at this level, if rather inconsistent, and on his day he's got half a chance here.

Berrettini has better grass data: 106.3 combined service points won/return points won and a 109.8 hold/break total, but he has saved over 71% of the break points against him on grass at main level.

Return-wise he's not brilliant, breaking 18.5% of the time, and if Berrettini does have a dip in his level Kudla is in there with a shot.

Otte too dependent on strong serving

Oscar Otte Munich 2022.jpg
There's nothing bet-worthy in Queen's again though and the two wagers that appeal more are underdogs Nikoloz Basilashvili and Tallon Griekspoor in Halle.

Basil has that superb record in Germany (won 18 of his last 24) and he won't mind the role of underdog, with this price on Oscar Otte looking too short for me.

Otte made the semis last week in Stuttgart, but he had a fair chunk of fortune in doing so and there's a hint of recency bias in this price in my view.

He was lucky against Denis Shapovalov (I watched all of that match, as I'd backed him +1.5 sets) because he was being outplayed by Shapo off the ground for the most part (Otte won 51% on his second serve, while Shapo was way better on 73%) and nicked it in two tie breaks.

Then he got a walkover when Benjamin Bonzi withdrew, which was followed by a decent performance against Berrettini, but in total in four sets against Berrettini and Shapovalov, Otte created just one break point chance.

He's been serving well: 96% holds in his last four matches, but he's only broken 6% of the time, and against Basilashvili his ground game will come under severe pressure.

We know Basil plays well in Germany and he was at times unplayable in dismissing Andrey Rublev in round one in a match that should have been 6-4, 6-4 to Basilashvili, so a repeat of that level should be enough to beat Otte, and 2.01/1 is a decent price for me.

The second one that I'm tempted with is Tallon Griekspoor at 2.56/4 against Roberto Bautista Agut, who may well have been flattered by his seemingly one-sided win over Marton Fucsovics in round one.

Fucsovics came into that match with an injury and retired in the second set with that same back problem as in Stuttgart and RBA is very early into his comeback from a wrist injury, so he's lacking matches.

Griekspoor's best level is capable of winning this match, but I just feel that I'd want closer to 3.02/1 before backing him against a proven performer like RBA, who does have a strong record in this sort of price range.

He's 34-14 win/loss at main level when priced up between 1.68/13 and 1.794/5 so I'll leave that one and just take Basilashvili for one point on Thursday.