The curtain comes up on the Carabao Cup this afternoon and Tobias Gourlay doesn't expect Bournemouth to fluff their lines
"MK Dons went out of the competition at this stage last year"
Bournemouth v Milton Keynes Dons
There are two matches to update on today. First, in Japan yesterday morning, Sapporo sank to defeat at home to Osaka. But later that afternoon Ilves got the job done for us in Finland, beating AC Oulu 1-0 to give us a fourth winner from five bets this week.
We're on home turf today as Bournemouth and MK Dons have been drawn into a little moment of history: the first ever Carabao Cup first-round game to be played in July.
Going back to January, Bournemouth haven't drawn any of their last 15 competitive home games. The Cherries are odds-on to beat lower-league opposition today, just as they have already done in a pair of FA Cup home games this year: they beat Oldham 4-1 then Crawley 2-1 in January. The hosts haven't been beaten in 90 minutes at the Vitality Stadium in a Carabao Cup game since Liverpool won here in 2014 (W4-D4). They conceded in 3/4 of those wins.
MK Dons went out of the competition at this stage last year, losing 0-1 at home to Coventry City. They also lost a Carabao Cup game 0-3 to Bournemouth in 2018 and there's little in their recent history to suggest they can overcome opponents from a higher tier - though they did manage a creditable draw at Burnley in the FA Cup in January (before losing on penalties).
Bournemouth have tended to get the job done in 90 at the Vitality recently, so we'll take the favourites to go through with the minimum of fuss. MK Dons also lost another recent meeting with Bournemouth 0-3 so, to give ourselves an odds-against punt, we'll take Bournemouth -1.0 on the Asian Handicap.
2021 P/L (1pt per bet)
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