Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW38

Cristian Dell'Orco of Lecce and Iago Falque of Genoa
One of Genoa and Lecce will drop out of Serie A this weekend

Using expected goals (xG) data from Infogol as his guide, Tom Victor looks for the likely Serie A winners and scorelines as the relegation battle is settled...

"Lecce have been in the bottom three since March, and haven't been higher than 14th in the league all season, but a recent resurgence means all is not lost for Fabio Liverani's side."

Sampdoria to spoil Brescia's Serie A farewell

Brescia v Sampdoria
Saturday, 17:00
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The last few games have demonstrated why Brescia will be spending next season in Serie B, with opponents big and small getting the better of them at both ends of the pitch. Sampdoria haven't been stunning either, losing three on the spin, but their defeats against Juventus and Milan at least painted a picture of a team that can cause plenty of opponents problems. The visitors are 52% to win based on Infogol's model, and they should have no trouble doing so if they create as many chances as they have in recent weeks.

Back the 1-2 @ [9.80]

Milan to bring Cagliari back down to earth

AC Milan v Cagliari
Saturday, 19:45
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Cagliari looked the part in beating champions Juventus, but their away form is likely to hold them back at the San Siro. After flirting with the top four early in the campaign, Walter Zenga's team have won just once on the road since November, with an average xGF of just 1.01 on their travels playing a part. Free-scoring Milan are heavy favourites to seal a victory which would see them finish on 66 points, something which looked near-impossible when the league resumed in June.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.00]

Atalanta to pip Inter in battle for second

Atalanta v Inter Milan
Saturday, 19:45
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If both teams are up for this one, it ought to have the highest-quality football of any of the games in the final weekend. Victory for Atalanta would assure them of second place, and an average of 2.28 xGF at home gives them the edge over an Inter side who also know where the goal is. The hosts are 52% to win, which they're more than capable of if they find a way through the Nerazzurri back-line which has been especially stingy of late.

Back the 2-1 @ [11.00]

Juve to round off season with a win

Juventus v Roma
Saturday, 19:45
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After a frustrating defeat at Cagliari, Juventus will want to end with a victory and set themselves a high points target as they prepare for a title defence in 2020/21. While Roma have scored freely on the road this season, they've also conceded 1.38 xGA away from the Olimpico and could well come up short against a Juve side who put three past them in the Coppa Italia and have Cristiano Ronaldo in his best league goalscoring form since 2015/16.

Back the 3-1 @ [24.00]

Napoli to end Lazio's hopes of a runner-up spot

Napoli v Lazio
Saturday, 19:45
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Lazio look set for at least one honour this season, with Ciro Immobile way out in front in the goalscoring charts and needing one more goal to match Gonzalo Higuaín's single-season record, but second place may be beyond them after a late-season slump. They'll need a win in Naples and a draw between Atalanta and Inter for that to change, and Napoli are 53% with Infogol's model to take all three points after averaging 1.93 xGF per home game and keeping things relatively tight at the back.

Back the 2-1 @ [12.00]

Koulibaly-Napoli-2019.jpg

Fiorentina to roll over SPAL in away finale

SPAL v Fiorentina
Sunday, 17:00
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SPAL will be hopeful of going out on a high, but they're up against it with opponents Fiorentina coming off a 4-0 demolition of Bologna in midweek. The Viola are 49% according to Infogol's model, so it's not a foregone conclusion, but an average of nearly 1.7 xGA per game across the last three at Stadio Paolo Mazza doesn't bode well, even if they did manage to stop the rot with a draw against Torino last time out.

Back the 1-2 @ [8.80]

Bologna to scrape past Torino

Bologna v Torino
Sunday, 19:45
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Both Bologna and Torino come into this game off the back of defeats, with each boasting just one win from their last six, but home advantage may be enough to separate these two bottom-half sides. With 1.70 xGA per away game, and more than two actual goals conceded per game, the visitors should give Bologna plenty of chances to find the net. They'll just hope Infogol's 49% chance of victory translates into something a little less tense than their last-gasp win over Lecce in their last home game.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.00]

Genoa to cling to survival with win against Verona

Genoa v Verona
Sunday, 19:45
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A 5-0 humbling at Sassuolo means Genoa aren't quite out of the woods yet, but Davide Nicola's men do at least have their fate in their own hands. Victory against a Verona side averaging 1.65 xGA away from home should do the trick, and Genoa can channel recent wins over SPAL and Lecce at Stadio Luigi Ferraris to get over the line without needing to worry about Lecce's result against Parma.

Back the 2-1 @ [8.80]

Lecce to make Genoa sweat with home win

Lecce v Parma
Sunday, 19:45
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Lecce have been in the bottom three since March, and haven't been higher than 14th in the league all season, but a recent resurgence means all is not lost for Fabio Liverani's side. A hard-fought win at Udinese, their first win away from Stadio Via del Mare since February, means if they beat Parma, and Genoa fail to pick up all three points, survival is theirs. They couldn't ask for a much better opponent, with Parma averaging less than 1 xGF and 1.93 xGA on the road, so we could be in for a nail-biting final day.

Back the 3-1 @ [11.00]

Final day win to leave Sassuolo as 'best of the rest'

Sassuolo v Udinese
Sunday, 19:45
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While other teams outside the top seven might have been tempted to ease off, eighth-place Sassuolo's demolition of Genoa suggests that's not part of their plan. Infogol gives them a 48% chance of ending the season with back-to-back wins, with opponents Udinese having blown hot and cold during the run-in. An average of more than 1.6 xGF at home, it's unlikely to be another 5-0 but the hosts should have enough to take all three points.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.20]

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Just in time for the return of Serie A action, Infogol has improved its website and free app with; a cleaner look, More prominent xG features, Enhanced Form Guide and Over/Under % chance. Check them out at infogol.net

Tom Victor,

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