Saturday Football Tips: Best bets for the Premier League and more

  • Max Liu
  • 4:00 min read
Man City manager Pep Guardiola
Pep will be smiling if City become champions this weekend

Get our football experts' best bets for a Saturday that sees big games in the Premier League battle for top four, La Liga title race and much more...

"Chelsea 1.501/2 are neck-and-neck with table-toppers Man City in terms of performance data since Thomas Tuchel took charge. The Blues' boast the division's best defence in that sample, shipping three Premier League goals in 13 fixtures when excluding the bizarre West Brom implosion."

Crystal Palace v Manchester City: City slickers to continue treble push

Crystal Palace v Manchester City
Saturday 1 May, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

If Manchester City beat Crystal Palace on Saturday and Manchester United lose to Liverpool on Sunday then Pep Guardiola's team will be crowned Premier League champions for the third time in his tenure. Thirteenth-placed Palace have little to play for while, for City, the plan must be to get three points secured early so Guardiola can take off key player's with Tuesday's Champions League semi-final second leg against PSG in mind.

Key Stat: Crystal Palace have lost 13 of their last 17 Premier League meetings with Man City (W2 D2), failing to score on 10 occasions in that run.

Andrew Atherley says: "Palace rank higher than City for matches with over 2.5 goals, lying 11th with 50% while Guardiola's side are 13th on 45%.

"City's figure is linked to the impression that they don't always make their chances count or press home their advantage when in front.

"The leaders have not scored more than two goals in their last 10 matches, since their 3-0 win at Fulham in mid-March, which might leave backers of over 2.5 goals at 1.738/11 relying on Palace to get on the scoresheet too.

"Roy Hodgson's side have done that in their last five games, though scoring only once each time, but managed just one shot (off target) in the reverse fixture against City."

Andrew's bet: Back Man City -1.5 on Asian handicap at 1.9620/21

Swansea v Derby: Goals at a premium in key contest

Swansea v Derby
Saturday May 1, 15:00
Sky Sports

Swansea have secured a place in the Championship play-offs but their manager is keen for them to maintain their momentum. That could be bad news for Derby who are in freefall under the management of Wayne Rooney. They are one place above the drop zone and 2.8615/8 for relegation so three points would be a god-send for the Rams here.

Key Stat: Last weekend Derby lost for the fifth match in a row for the first time in a decade.

Mark O'Haire says: "Swansea have fired blanks in five of their last nine Championship dates, with seven of the most recent 11 tussles producing Under 2.5 Goals 1.608/13. However, with a top-six finish already secured, plus the potential for Steve Cooper to make significant changes to his starting XI, the hosts could be willing to play a more expansive game without pressure.

"Derby have delivered a tally of three clean sheets in 18 league outings since the end of the January with 10 of those producing Over 2.5 Goals 2.206/5 profit. Even so, the visitors have found goalscoring a particular problem in 2020/21, managing a measly 15 goals on the road and scoring multiple goals just twice in their past 13 fixtures.

"Considering the circumstances, the significance of the match for the visitors, plus Swansea's possible alterations and the teams' recent woes in the final-third, I'm happy to take 1.855/6 on 'No' in the Both Teams To Score column."

Mark's bet: Back Both Teams To Score 'No' at 1.855/6

Elche v Atlético Madrid: Leaders must take three points in thrilling race

Elche v Atlético Madrid
Saturday, 15:15
Watch on Betfair Live Video

Atletico Madrid lead La Liga by a single point with just three separating the top four. The title race is on a knife-edge and at 2.8815/8 Diego Simeone's men are not the favourites - presumably because next weekend they have to go to Barcelona 2.466/4. A win here, then, is a must for Atleti. Can they handle the pressure?

Key Stat: Atletico Madrid have failed to win their last five matches on the road in all competitions.

Simeone celebrates.jpg

Tom Victor says: "A defeat in Bilbao last weekend means Atlético Madrid's grip on the title has loosened, but they will fancy themselves to claim victory against an Elche side against whom they scored three in December.

"Fran Escribá's hosts picked up a crucial win last weekend in their battle against the drop, but the league's worst home xGA return could work against them here."

Tom's bet: Back the 0-2 @ 6.4011/2

Chelsea v Fulham: Blues to bag routine success

Chelsea v Fulham
Saturday May 1, 17:30
Sky Sports

A west London derby with implications at both ends of the table. Fulham need points if they're to have any hope avoiding relegation. The hosts are 1.548/15 for a top four finish but it's not a given and the games are coming thick and fast for them, with this match sandwiched between both legs of their Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid.

Key Stat: Chelsea have lost just one of their 14 Premier League games under Thomas Tuchel (W8 D5).

Mark O'Haire says: "Chelsea 1.501/2 are neck-and-neck with table-toppers Man City in terms of performance data since Thomas Tuchel took charge. The Blues' boast the division's best defence in that sample, shipping three Premier League goals in 13 fixtures when excluding the bizarre West Brom implosion. The hosts are difficult to dismiss with key points up for grabs.

"Fulham 8.808/1 have earned a solitary point from five (W0-D1-L4) with the Cottagers really toiling in the final-third. No top-flight side has created fewer Big Chances than Scott Parker's side over the last eight encounters with the Whites scoring multiple goals just twice since November. The visitors have earned top honours on an equal-low five times this term."

Mark's bet: Back Chelsea to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 1.9520/21

AC Milan v Benevento: Milan to pile pressure on Serie A strugglers

AC Milan v Benevento
Saturday, 19:45
Watch on Betfair Live Video

AC Milan lead Italy's top flight for part of the season and it looked like Zlatan Ibrahimovic was going to fire them to their first Serie A title for 10 years. Instead, their neighbours Inter can wrap up the title this weekend while Milan have slipped out of the top four. They are 5/4 with five matches to play.

Key Stat: Milan have lost their last two matches, conceding five and scoring just once in the process.

Tom Victor says: "Last week saw Benevento drop into the bottom three for the first time this season, at the worst possible time, and a trip to the San Siro now takes on increased significance.

"Away manager Pippo Inzaghi needs a result against the club with whom he won the Champions League, but the Rossoneri need a result of their own to remain in top four contention and Infogol anticipates a home win."

Tom's bet: Back the 2-1 @ 8.207/1

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