Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides scoreline predictions from Serie A as the top and bottom sides meet...
"With an 11 point lead and five games left, it would take a remarkable turn of events for Inter not to win this season's Scudetto."
Verona to end unfortunate winless run
While Verona have lost their last four games, they can count themselves unlucky to have emerged empty-handed after the quartet produced an expected goal difference of close to zero. Infogol makes the home side favourites against Spezia, but the visitors now find themselves fighting hard for survival after seeing the relegation battle close in on them.
Inter to move within touching distance of title
With an 11 point lead and five games left, it would take a remarkable turn of events for Inter not to win this season's Scudetto. This is especially true considering they're due to face bottom-of-the-table Crotone and their league-worst home xGA of 1.88 per game, and Infogol's model gives the champions-elect a 69% chance of victory at Ezio Scida.
Milan to keep Benevento in trouble
Last week saw Benevento drop into the bottom three for the first time this season, at the worst possible time, and a trip to the San Siro now takes on increased significance. Away manager Pippo Inzaghi needs a result against the club with whom he won the Champions League, but the Rossoneri need a result of their own to remain in top four contention and Infogol anticipates a home win.
Lazio to preserve slim top four hopes
A victory over AC Milan last week ensures Lazio's top four dream is still alive due to their game in hand, but they have to keep winning in the meantime. Next up for them is a Genoa side who have been good at picking up points against those around them, but are expected to lose at the Olimpico after taking just six points this season against the current top six.
Bologna to keep Fiorentina in trouble
Fiorentina sit just three points clear of the drop, and an away return of 1.7 xGA per game suggests they may find themselves relying on home results for survival. They face a Bologna side who have picked up 25 of their 38 points at Renato Dall'Ara, and the hosts are favourites according to Infogol's model despite shipping five at Atalanta last weekend.
Napoli to win battle of in-form sides
Cagliari have climbed out of the bottom three with a trio of wins, but a trip to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona means it won't be easy to turn three into four. Napoli's hold on a top-four spot is far from secure, but a home record of just 1.18 xGA per game and just three defeats from 16 will fill the hosts with confidence ahead of Sunday's clash.
Atalanta to end Sassuolo's winning run
A trip to Sassuolo represents one of Atalanta's tougher remaining tasks, especially given the hosts' four successive wins, but Gian Piero Gasperini's side will remember the five goals they put past the Neroverdi earlier this season. Infogol gives the visitors the upper hand, with a 51% chance of victory, but it's likely to be a close-run thing at Map Stadium.
Juve to retain flimsy hold on top four spot
Juventus ended last weekend in fourth, but only due to Milan losing in Rome, so three points at Friuli would be very welcome. The reigning champions put four past Udinese in the return fixture, and three successive home defeats for Luca Gotti's side - even if that outcome doesn't tell the entire story - will be a welcome sight for the visitors.
Roma to earn a rare away win
Roma'a away record is behind their failure to sustain a top-four challenge, though a positive expected goal difference on the road suggests the results don't match the performances. A win at Luigi Ferraris would strengthen their hold on a Europa Conference League place, though the Giallorossi's chances on Sunday may depend on how focused they are on their Europa League semi-final responsibilities.
Torino to take big march forward in battle against drop
Parma are all-but down after losing to Crotone last weekend, and a match against another relegation-threatened side can seal the deal. Torino are only out of the bottom three by the skin of their teeth, though one of the better xG balances in the bottom half will give them hope. After averaging 1.53 xGF across their last six games, bringing eight points, Davide Nicola's side are favoured to win one of their more inviting remaining matches.