Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as the top of the table tightens up...
"Barcelona will be frustrated not to be going into this gameweek on top of the table, but they remain very much in contention for the title."
Celta to solidify top-half berth
Levante have found it tough to create chances of late, averaging 0.57 per game across their last six outings, and Celta will surely see this as evidence they can move six points clear of Friday's opponents. Infogol gives the hosts a notable edge, though Paco López's side did taste victory in the corresponding fixture at the tail end of last season.
Eibar to snatch chance to keep season alive
Failure to win on Saturday afternoon would all but end Eibar's time in La Liga, but Infogol's model gives them the upper hand against an Alavés side whose last away win came in November. While the visitors have shown some resilience under new boss Javier Calleja, Eibar are tipped to come out on top in what looks to be a tightly-fought derby.
Atléti to keep title battle going
A defeat in Bilbao means Atlético Madrid's grip on the title has loosened, but they will fancy themselves to claim victory against an Elche side against whom they scored three in December. Fran Escribá's hosts picked up a crucial win last weekend in their battle against the drop, but the league's worst home xGA return could work against them here.
La Real to earn a third straight win
Real Sociedad could have a big part to play in the relegation battle, with a trip to Huesca one of three games against the current bottom four, but Imanol Alguacil's team have a European charge of their own to take care of. Infogol's model backs them to continue that push with a victory away to a team with just three home wins all season, but it's expected to be a relatively close game.
Real Madrid to return to form in the league
Having missed a chance to go top last weekend, Real Madrid can't afford more dropped points against an Osasuna side whose late-season home form has helped them pull clear of relegation trouble. Jagoba Arrasate's team have the best expected goal difference in the bottom half of the table, and the visitors will need to make sure they're not distracted by a looming Champions League showdown in London.
Betis to stop Valladolid and prolong impressive run
A deserved draw in Madrid last week meant Real Betis' current run now stands at one defeat in 10, and a win at José Zorrilla can help keep a Europa League place in their hands. The home side could also use the points as they attempt to stave off relegation, but 15 points from 16 home games is not pleasant reading for a team who drew a blank in the reverse fixture at Benito Villamarín.
Villarreal to provide ideal follow-up to European win
After beating Arsenal in the first leg of their Europa League semi-final, Villarreal can keep some momentum going by beating Getafe at home. Infogol gives the hosts the edge, with the away side averaging just 0.94 xGF per game on the road, and it would represent a fourth straight league victory over these opponents.
Granada to build on win at Camp Nou
After defying the odds to beat Barcelona on Thursday night, Granada now have the challenge of winning a game in which they're expected to triumph. Visitors Cádiz have allowed 1.82 xGA per game away from home, but have surprisingly still won more on the road than at home - while the hosts are favourites according to Infogol's model, they will need to be careful.
Barça to rebound from midweek setback
Barcelona will be frustrated not to be going into this gameweek on top of the table, but they remain very much in contention for the title. If they want that to remain the case, a 60% chance of victory at the Mestalla will need to be converted into three points, and they'll hope a failure to win either of their last two meetings with Los Che is a blip rather than a worrying pattern.
Sevilla to keep selves in title race
As those above them have floundered, Sevilla have kept winning and are now just three points off the top of the table. By the time they face Athletic on Monday they'll know the lay of the land, and the visitors' underwhelming away record - coupled with their own return of 2.31 points per game at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán - suggests Julen Lopetegui's team can keep up the pressure.