Bet of the Day: Nottingham Forest v Arsenal: Home team can break scoring duck with Morgan Gibbs-White to the fore

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal - Are Gunners a good thing at 8/131.61?

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Sunday 18 October, 16:30
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Arsenal arrive at Nottingham Forest looking to put their last away day at Brighton behind them with the market making Mikel Arteta's side clear favourites to bounce back at the City Ground.

The Gunners are priced at 8/131.61 for the away win with the Betfair Sportsbook while Forest are 9/25.50 to cause an upset and inflict back-to-back away defeats on Arsenal.

Put the 3-0 defeat at Brighton to one side and Arsenal's recent Premier League record is formidable. They have won 10 of their last 11 league games since late April and 14 of their last 17. One bad afternoon on the south coast does not suddenly make them a team to oppose.

Forest, meanwhile, have work to do. Five points from their opening six games represents a sluggish start and they need to find a way to turn home advantage into something more meaningful if they are to trouble the title favourites.

Arsenal's price reflects their superiority on paper. The question is whether Forest's struggles make them a value bet to oppose or whether the Gunners' wider body of work points towards an immediate response. It's a market that looks bang on to my eyes and numbers.

Forest v Arsenal Tip 1 - Back both teams to score

Both teams to score at 10/111.91 appeals more as a bet than taking aim at the match odds. The market is potentially underestimating the home side's chances of finding a breakthrough.

Arsenal remain one of the Premier League's elite defensive outfits but there are subtle signs that William Saliba's absence is having a marginal impact on their ability to shut teams out. With Saliba and Gabriel paired together, Arsenal have averaged just 0.65 expected goals against per game. This season, that figure has risen to 0.9.

It is hardly a defensive collapse and Ezri Konsa has settled in just fine but these are the small shifts that matter. Arsenal have also conceded five goals across their last four Premier League games, suggesting there may be more opportunities for opponents to hurt them than the odds imply.

Forest are an intriguing opponent. Their attacking performances have deserved more reward, averaging 1.88 expected goals per 90 minutes. That points towards a team creating enough chances to trouble Premier League defences even if the finishing has not consistently followed.

The most striking statistic is that Forest are the only team yet to score at home in the Premier League this season, despite registering 48 shots, seven on target and 2.68 expected goals. That is a frustrating return for Oliver Glasner but it also suggests their goal drought is not entirely reflective of their attacking output.

Nottm Forest v Arsenal (Both teams to Score?)

Sunday 18 Oct 2026 at 16:30

Eventually, the chances will become goals. Against an Arsenal defence showing marginal signs of vulnerability this could be the fixture that ends Forest's home scoring drought.

Forest v Arsenal Tip 2 - Gibbs-White to make his mark

Morgan Gibbs-White to score or assist at 15/82.88 looks another attractive way to back Nottingham Forest to trouble the scoresheet.

This is a landmark occasion for the Forest captain, who is set to make his 150th Premier League appearance for the club. There would be no better way to celebrate than influencing a result against one of the division's heavyweight sides and the underlying numbers suggest he is well placed to do exactly that.

Gibbs-White has been one of the Premier League's most influential creative players this season, creating 17 chances. Only Brighton's Pascal Gross, with 18, has managed more. More importantly, Gibbs-White leads the way for expected assists and big chances created, evidence that his influence extends beyond simply keeping possession ticking over. He is a difference maker.

He is being deployed as the focal point of Forest's attack, giving him the licence to dictate play, arrive in dangerous areas and supply the forwards around him. That central responsibility makes him the clear standout when assessing the attacking prop prices.

Given his creative output and central role, Gibbs-White to score or assist is worth backing.

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