Bundesliga Betting: Survival scrap will feature goals

Basement battle will catch the eye

Hertha Berlin v Köln
Saturday 15 May, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

After coming out of a period of COVID-19 induced quarantine, Hertha Berlin have produced a fine set of results despite a packed schedule. Draws against Mainz and Arminia Bielefeld and wins over Freiburg and Schalke have extended the capital club's unbeaten run to seven top-flight matches, and they know that a draw this weekend against second-bottom Köln will ensure they can't be automatically relegated.

Köln were looking good after back-to-back victories over RB Leipzig and Augsburg, but last Sunday's disastrous 4-1 home defeat to Freiburg was a massive blow, and the Billy Goats are in the bottom two with just two games left to turn things around. Luckily for them, their final match is at home to already-relegated Schalke, so there's a good chance they'll pick up a victory in that one.

I'm incredibly surprised to see Over 2.5 Goals trading at 2.0521/20 here, as neither team has defended well all season. 11 of Hertha's 16 league games at the Olympiastadion have featured at least three goals, while eight of Köln's last ten matches have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land. If you look at Köln's road matches, they are usually highly entertaining - eight of the last ten have featured three goals or more, and three of those have actually seen an Over 4.5 Goals bet land.

Hertha are a bit light in attack after injuries to Matheus Cunha, Jhon Cordoba and Krzsystof Piatek, but youngster Jessic Ngankam got the winner against Schalke, and has also scored against Bayern this season. On the Köln side of things, centre-forward Sebastian Andersson is finally fit after a troublesome bone edema, and scored a fine goal against Freiburg. Back Over 2.5 Goals here at 2.0421/20.

Tiring Union to fall short

Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin
Saturday 15 May, 14:30
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It's been a fantastic season for Union Berlin, and they are still in the mix for Europa League or Conference League qualification. However, there are signs that a long and punishing season is catching up with the capital club. Last weekend they were beaten 3-0 by Wolfsburg, and they have only won two of their last seven matches. On the road, Urs Fischer's team has lost six of the last nine, including three of the last four.

Bayer Leverkusen know that they can't now qualify for the Champions League, but the avoidance of defeat here would almost certainly see them make the Europa League with a game to spare. Hannes Wolf is yet to win away from home as Bayer coach, but at the BayArena his side is chasing a fourth straight victory.

Union tend to struggle away from home against the top six (they have lost in Frankfurt, Wolfsburg, Leipzig and Dortmund), and I think Bayer's speedy attack will cause them problems. I'll go for the home win at 1.910/11.

No Silva lining for sorry Schalke

Schalke v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday 15 May, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

The worst season in Schalke's history throws up gut-punch after gut-punch, and Wednesday's home defeat to Hertha Berlin was their 23rd of this Bundesliga season. Even if you doubled their points tally, it wouldn't be enough to take them off the bottom. Coach Dimitrios Grammozis is throwing youngster after youngster into the fray in a bid to make them battle-hardened ahead of life in Bundesliga 2. next term, and a mix of injuries and COVID-19 cases hasn't helped.

Eintracht Frankfurt are desperate for the points after slipping out of the top four, and anything less than a win here will be a total disaster. They'll be encouraged by Schalke's awful record against the top six this term, as well as the fact that they have beaten the Royal Blues in four of the clubs' last five meetings.

I'll back a Frankfurt win, Over 2.5 Goals (that bet has landed in seven of their last eight away games) and Andre Silva to score at evens with the Sportsbook's Bet Builder. Portuguese international Silva has smashed in 25 goals in 30 Bundesliga appearances this term, and he has found the net in four of his last six appearances.