Football Bet of the Day: Germany to shine, but not too brightly

Liechtenstein to frustrate

Germany v Liechtenstein
Thursday 11 November, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

We suffered pain at the hands of Palmeiras last night, as they did what we asked by beating Atletico GO in Brazil, but a 90th-minute goal to make it 4-0 ruined the Under 3.5 Goals part of our wager. It's our first setback of the week, so let's press on.

We head to Wolfsburg now, because Germany are up against Liechtenstein in a World Cup qualifier. There's no jeopardy here - Hansi Flick's side have qualified for next year's extravaganza in Qatar with room to spare, while Liechtenstein were never likely to threaten the top two.

If anyone thought that full stadiums and full fixture lists meant that COVID-19 was no longer an issue in football, they only need to look at Germany's build-up to this game to disabuse themselves of that notion. Bayern defender Niklas Süle contracted the virus, which ruled him out of action. Karim Adeyemi, Joshua Kimmich, Serge Gnabry and Jamal Musiala were identified as close contacts, and are also in isolation.

Even without those players, there is every reason to believe that Germany will win this comfortably. Flick seems keen to put on a show, and after the rather inconsistent and unconvincing end of Joachim Löw's time in charge, Flick knows it's important to show that Germany are still a ruthless side. They were anything but in the reverse fixture, labouring to a 2-0 win in St. Gallen.

Liechtenstein have lost all but one of their qualifiers so far, and on the road they have lost 5-0 in North Macedonia, 2-0 in Romania and 4-0 in Iceland. The question here will be whether they can dig in as they did in the reverse fixture.

With Germany 1.011/100 to take the win, it's not easy to find an angle here, but I'll back Under 5.5 Goals here at evens on the Sportsbook. Yes, Germany are capable of putting this side to the sword, but they have been disrupted by absences, and Flick will be tempted to experiment in the second half. Players like Wolfsburg duo Lukas Nmecha and Maxi Arnold have been brought into the squad, and Flick will want to examine his options ahead of next year's World Cup. It seems unlikely that Liechtenstein will contribute a goal (they have only scored once in these qualifiers), so the bet is about whether Germany will rattle in six goals or more. I think they might fall just short of that target.