After securing 5/6 winners this week, Kev hopes to wrap up with an odds-against success in Germany.
"Dortmund have scored three goals or more in five of their last six home matches in the Bundesliga, and Union may have been drained by Thursday's UECL visit to Slavia Prague."
Dortmund to cut loose
Borussia Dortmund v Union Berlin
Sunday 19 September, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports App
Atalanta were pushed surprisingly hard by Salernitana last night, and a 1-0 win for La Dea left us short of where we needed to be, so our dreams of a perfect week were dashed.
We're still guaranteed a profit for the week, and we'll look to wrap up in style in the Bundesliga. Borussia Dortmund are up against Union Berlin, and I believe the hosts will be able to light up the scoreboard.
Union Berlin are generally a tough nut to crack, and they have beaten BVB twice in Köpenick since winning promotion to the top flight for the first time in the Bundesliga era. However, they have lost 5-0 and 2-0 at Signal Iduna Park, and there are numerous reasons why I think they'll struggle to contain BVB.
Firstly, Union were in Prague on Thursday, and lost 3-1 to Slavia in the Conference League. The trip will have drained them, and we still haven't seen how the capital club will deal with the rigours of continental competition.
It's also worth noting that Union are giving up plenty of chances. Their keeper Andreas Luthe had to make six saves in last weekend's goalless draw with Augsburg, and Die Eisernen allowed Gladbach an Expected Goals figure of 1.87 in the previous game. There isn't quite the solidity of the past couple of years, and the loss of midfield dynamo Robert Andrich to Bayer Leverkusen may partially explain that.
Dortmund won 2-1 at Besiktas in midweek, with teenage midfielder Jude Bellingham playing a starring role. Marco Rose's men could and should have scored more goals, and they are playing some thrilling football. They put four goals past Bayer Leverkusen, three past Hoffenheim and five past Eintracht Frankfurt. Erling Haaland already has five league goals in four games, he got a hat-trick in the DFB Cup, and he scored against Besiktas in the Champions League.
Union pose a threat in attack, with Taiwo Awoniyi and Max Kruse in great form, so rather than look at a result, I'll simply back Dortmund to score Over 2.5 Team Goals at 11/10 on the Sportsbook. Regardless of the result, if Dortmund score at least three times in the match, we win. They have done that in five of their last six Bundesliga home matches.
FBOTD 2021 P/L
Points Staked: 130
Points Returned: 107.95
P/L: -22.05 points
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