Football Bet of the Day: Gritty visitors can rough up Bayern

Bayern Munich v Arminia Bielefeld
Monday 15 February, 19:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video

Fabio Quagliarella has made a career of delivering under enormous pressure, and after our Tobias asked Sampdoria and Fiorentina to bring him at least three goals, Quagliarella obliged with Samp's winner in a 2-1 victory.

As Tobias counts his euros in Genoa, we head to Munich to welcome home the newly-crowned Club World Cup champions Bayern. The Bavarian giants have become only the second club to win six trophies in the space of a year (Barcelona were the first), but they face what could be a tricky game against Arminia Bielefeld.

Arminia are in the relegation playoff spot, but they work incredibly hard and they have shown they can make life tough for the big hitters, at least for a while. They only lost 2-0 to Dortmund, 1-0 to Gladbach, 2-1 to Leipzig and 2-1 to Leverkusen. They lost the reverse fixture 4-1 to Bayern, but the record champions are tired and depleted. Thomas Müller and Leon Goretzka both have COVID-19, Serge Gnabry is injured, Corentin Tolisso is struggling with a knock, and Jerome Boateng's involvement in the game is unclear after the tragic death of his former partner Kasia Lenhardt.

Bayern have won just three of their last 20 competitive games by three goals or more, and Bielefeld have only lost three of their 19 Bundesliga matches by three goals or more. Bielefeld have had two weeks of rest, after their game against Werder Bremen was snowed off, and I'll give them a two-and-a-half-goal start on the Asian Handicap at 1.834/5.