Millwall v Leicester: Lions' Den can be tamed in 33/1 tip

• FA Cup has long history for low card counts

• 0 cards in 7 of ref Langford's last 25 domestic cup ties

• Back 33/134.00 & 21/202.05 shots at the New Den

• Read about Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

Millwall v Leicester
Saturday 6 January, 12:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Long-term readers probably already know the angle I'm going to take on FA Cup third-round weekend - it's one which delivered a decent profit for this column 12 months ago.

Basically, going low on cards in the early rounds of the competition is usually a good approach with card numbers well down on other competitions such as the Premier League and EFL.

Essentially, the referees are a bit more lenient and the whatever reasons for that, they don't really concern punters.

I therefore look for already-lenient referees and try to combine them with two well-behaved teams.

Sadly, Saturday doesn't throw up the ideal combination of all three but I do believe this game - which you can stream on Betfair Live Video - has potential for a low-card count at some decent prices.

Bet 1: Both teams under 0.5 cards

A primary reason for that is the appointment of ref Oliver Langford, who has shown under 2.5 cards in 10 of his last 15 FA Cup ties. Twelve of the 15 have seen under 3.5 cards land, while two of them have seen none at all.

He's been a fairly low carder in the Championship this season, averaging 3.4 yellows per game, and also has good numbers for our bet in his League Cup games over the years with only 37 cards shown in 23 such matches. That competition also tends to produce a low card count.

Leicester work well for the theory, too.

Eight of their last nine matches have seen under 3.5 cards and if the Championship's runaway leaders dominate as they could against a struggling Millwall side, that will only enhance the chances of few cards.

Millwall look the biggest obstacle to a low-card game - they are towards the bottom of the fair-play table and doubtless many will be put off by the thinking 'it's always a raucous atmosphere at The Den'.

Yet it's worth noting that the infamous Millwall v Leeds fixture here earlier in the season failed to produce a card and if that game can do it, any can.

My betting approach will be two-fold with half the stake on each bet.

First, let's go for the jackpot by backing both teams under 0.5 cards at close to 33/134.00. It's occurred seven times in Langford's last 25 domestic cup ties.

Bet 2: Under 3.5 cards

But it's also worth a saver on under 3.5 cards at 21/202.05 - that would ensure a small profit whatever happens with the long-shot bet.

The under 3.5 line takes preference over the 2.5 one as it's undeniable that card counts have generally risen since the clampdown on aspects such as dissent and delaying play which came in at the start of the season. Therefore the higher line helps negate that.

More FA Cup tips: Seven bets for Saturday's games!