Saturday Football Tips: Go low on cards in the FA Cup

• Low card theory applies in FA Cup

• Games at Luton and Liverpool fit the bill

• 6/1 double the recommendation

As a props punter, FA Cup third-round day means one thing to me - going low on cards.

The competition has a considerably lower cards-per-game figure than the Premier League, for example, with many early-round matches regularly seeing few bookings.

Therefore I always like to look for matches in which cards could be at a premium and I do so by looking at two main factors - the referees and the teams. Low card averages for all three is the holy grail.

Taking a bit of a different approach to today's column, I've found two where I think low card tallies could result and will put them together in a tasty-looking double.

First up, let's look at Luton v Wigan (KO 17:30).

David Webb has officiated primarily in the Championship this season where he's one of the most lenient referees, averaging 2.94 cards across his 17 games.

Seven of his last nine FA Cup ties have seen under 2.5 cards land and I think 23/10 about it happening again in this one is simply too big.

I guess the main reason for the price is Luton's three red cards this season but on total cards they are just 21st out of 24 in the Championship, while opponents Wigan are in 20th.

Throw in the fact that there were only two cards in the sides' previous meeting this season, in September, and 23/10 looks juicy indeed.

You could even opt for the safety net of the 3.5 line with the unders offered at 10/11 there.

The other match is the 20:00 kick-off at Anfield where Liverpool host Wolves.

Since Jurgen Klopp's arrival, the Reds have consistently had great discipline and they are yet to finish outside the top two in the Premier League fair-play table under the German.

So far this season, they sit top.

Wolves' figures are less encouraging but hardly any ground sees fewer cards than Anfield, largely because of the home side's dominance.

It's certainly encouraging that the four league games between these sides at Anfield since Wolves won promotion in 2018 have all gone under 2.5 cards.

As for the referee, Andy Madley has been one of the most lenient since his elevation to the top flight.

His FA Cup tallies aren't as impressive as the aforementioned Webb's although they do suggest under 2.5 cards backers will go close.

Twenty-three of his 27 FA Cup ties have seen under 3.5 cards and although it's only 13 of 27 on the under 2.5 line, the factors already mentioned above make me happy to include this game.

The under 2.5 cards double pays around 6/1.

Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: Bets FA Cup bets and more!