FCSB v Manchester United: Amorim's men to make top eight, but don't expect a big win

• FCSB in the mix for top-eight spot

• United rarely win big on the road

• Amad worth backing to find the net at 2/13.00

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FCSB v Manchester United
Thursday 30 January, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports

Romanian champions doing their country proud

The days of Romanian clubs going far in European competition appear to be long gone, but FCSB are having an excellent campaign in the Europa League. If you agree with the idea that FCSB are the continuation of the old Steaua Bucharest (that is still hotly disputed), then they are former European champions, having lifted the trophy in 1986. Steuau beat Terry Venables' Barcelona on penalties in that final, and they reached the final three years later.

This iteration of FCSB won the Romanian title last season, and in the Europa League they have lost just one of their seven league-phase matches. That was a 4-0 drubbing at Rangers.

If you look at the rest of their results, they are impressive. They won at Greek champions PAOK, held Hoffenheim and Olympiakos to goalless draws, and saw off Danish high-fliers Midtjylland 2-0. If you take the Rangers game out of the equation, they have conceded just three goals across the other six matches.

Romanian international Adrian Sut scored twice in last week's 3-2 victory at Qarabag, and is having a strong campaign. Striker Daniel Birligea has proven to be an excellent signing from domestic rivals CFR Cluj. In the league, FCSB are joint-top and involved in a fantastic title race, with five points separating the top five.

Unbeaten United on course for last 16

For all of their problems in the Premier League, Manchester United have actually performed pretty well in the Europa League under two different managers. They are one of only two unbeaten sides in the competition, and a win in Romania guarantees automatic qualification for the last 16. With no Champions League dropouts in the revamped format, United will be seen as one of the favourites to win the competition from here on in.

Last time out, United had enough chances to comfortably beat Rangers at Old Trafford, but they conceded a late leveller to Cyriel Dessers, only for a fine volley on the run from Bruno Fernandes to win the game in stoppage time. Fernandes has been one of the big winners of Amorim's tenure, and has scored three goals in his last five matches.

With new manager Ruben Amorim still talking tough in a bid to assert his authority (he said he'd rather pick the club's 63-year-old goalkeeping coach than select a listless Marcus Rashford), there is a feeling of gradual change at Old Trafford. The club are looking to sign players to fit Amorim's system, and they are attempting to shift underperforming or unsuitable players.

In the Premier League, United continue to be inconsistent, although winning at Fulham 1-0 on Sunday was no mean feat, even if it did come courtesy of a deflected Lisandro Martinez goal and a stunning goal-line clearance from impressive youngster Toby Collyer. United are still 11 points off the top six, and 12 behind the top four, so winning the UEL looks to be their only realistic way of qualifying for the Champions League.

Luke Shaw, Mason Mount and Jonny Evans are all still struggling with injury, while Uruguayan tackling machine Manuel Ugarte is a doubt with a knock picked up at Craven Cottage.

United have a safety net to take to Romania

Our friends at Opta currently give Manchester United an 89.8% chance of reaching the top eight, and therefore qualifying automatically for the last 16. They would have to lose, and five of the eight teams directly below them would have to win for there to be any chance of missing out.

The situation isn't quite so rosy for FCSB, who realistically need to win to stay in the top eight. Given their record in this competition, I expect the Romanian champions to prioritise this game in a way that United might not.

FCSB are unbeaten at home in this season's competition, and even in their unsuccessful Champions League qualifier at home to Sparta Prague, they pushed the Czech team all the way in a 3-2 defeat.

Last weekend I successfully gave Rangers a goal-and-a-half start against United at Old Trafford, and I'm happy to back FCSB here +1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.865/6. United would have to win by two goals or more for our bet to lose, and they haven't won away from home by a multiple-goal margin since a 3-0 win at Southampton in September. That remains their only away win by two goals or more this season.

Amazing Amad can make his mark

Often sidelined and underused by Erik ten Hag, Amad Diallo has been front and centre under Ruben Amorim. The speedy wide player scored a match-winning goal in the Manchester derby at the Etihad, got a vital equaliser at Anfield against Liverpool and rescued United from embarrassment against hapless Southampton by scoring a late hat-trick.

At time of writing, it's difficult to know how Amorim will approach this in terms of personnel, but Amad started against Rangers and there's a good chance he starts here. If he does, back the 22-year-old to find the net at a hefty 2/13.00 on the Sportsbook. He has scored six goals in the Premier League and two in the UEL.

When the To Score or Assist market comes up, he's worth backing there too, as he has racked up six PL assists.

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