Euro 2024

Euro 2024: Expert Scotland analysis includes 8/1 tournament tip

Scott McTominay and John McGinn
Scott McTominay is fancied to outscore John McGinn and other Scotland stars at Euro 2024

Scotland have been handed a tough Group at Euro 2024 and Andy Robson Tip is predicting that they'll suffer an early exit, though Scot McTominay could provide some memorable moments...

Poor form a concern for Scotland

Steve Clarke is five years into his job as Scotland manager and is approaching a second major tournament finals in three years after the country went more than two decades without playing on such a stage, yet he faces perhaps the trickiest period of his stewardship so far.

The expectation is for Scotland to finally break their duck and progress through to a knockout game, yet with hosts Germany, dark horses Switzerland and awkward Hungary awaiting Clarke's men, it promises to be anything but an easy ride.

Scotland's form, too, is disappointing. A run of difficult friendlies against teams in the top 10 in the FIFA Ranking led to a string of defeats, which combined with a couple of draws at the end of qualifying has served to take the wind from what was previously a buoyant group. This was underlined by a thoroughly disappointing performance in March against Northern Ireland.

Perhaps Clarke's most difficult job will be to install a winning mentality back into the group, particularly with defeat likely in the opening game against the tournament hosts.

With the positive momentum apparently gone, another early exit looks depressingly good value at 4/51.80.

Who will the manager look to inspire the team?

The likeliest candidates are Scott McTominay, who proved an unlikely goal-scoring talisman during the qualifying group as he netted seven times, and Aston Villa's John McGinn, who has so often been the go-to man for Scotland in the recent past and is up to 18 goals for the national team, 12 short of record marksmen Denis Law and Kenny Dalglish.

Both are priced at 8/19.00, yet McTominay would seem to offer the greater value to finish as Scotland's leading scorer in the tournament given his scoring form over the last year. He also offers a set-piece threat, where the Scots have been strong thanks to the work of Austin MacPhee, although penalties are likely to be designated to McGinn.

Strikers Che Adams and Lawrence Shankland are poor value given they combined for just two goals in qualifying.

Scotland typically struggle for shots on target. McTominay was their main threat in qualifying with 1.10 per 90. Look for Adams to post a greater tally in Germany, though. The Southampton forward had 1.33 per 90 in qualifying but managed only 135 minutes of action. He is a likely starter at Euro 2024.

McGinn is the other regular suspect to threaten. Of late, though, his figures are down. Across Euro 2020 qualifying, World Cup 2022 qualifying, and the 2022/23 Nations League, he did not post less than 0.94 shots on target per 90. During the last series, he was down at 0.65, with his volume of shots, too, hitting a low at 2.08.

Adams and McGinn led Scotland with seven shots at Euro 2020, yet both managed just one shot on target. Both will hope for more this time around.

One point a bet and other markets to look out for

With Germany, Switzerland, and Hungary making up a string of defensively solid opponents, Scotland to get exactly one point looks worth chancing at 10/34.33.

We've already mentioned that we fancy Clarke's men to lose their opening game against the hosts, and games against Switzerland and Hungary are likely to be problematic. Winning any of their trio of matches looks a tough task for Scotland, but we'll take a chance that they get a draw in one of their two remaining games.

Andrew Robertson, meanwhile, is the player likeliest to create chances. The Liverpool man led Scotland in qualifying with three assists, and while his form may not be the best domestically, there is much hope pinned on him. At Euro 2020, he delivered nine key passes - three times more than anyone else in the squad.

The captain will also be on corner duty and is likely to deliver at least some of the free kicks from wide areas into the box. Look to back him in the Assists market for each of Scotland's games.

Scotland are likely to feature prominently in the cards market, with 2.38 picked up per match in qualifying. Expect that figure to head upwards against a higher standard of opponent.

Picking out exactly who might be the recipient of these is trickier. Scotland had six players in qualifying who picked up a couple of bookings. Of these, only Robertson, Jack Hendry, and Ryan Porteous are likely starters.

The Liverpool player is arguably the most readily exposed of this trio in a defensive sense due to the attacking responsibilities he has, and this could make him prone to picking up a caution, particularly against stronger opponents. Porteous, though, has a reputation as a hot head and was cautioned 14 times in the Championship for Watford at a rate of 0.42 cards per 90.

McGinn and Christie likely to commit fouls

Two players, meanwhile, are particularly worth watching in the fouls market. The first, predictably, is the all-action McGinn, who gave away 1.69 fouls per 90 in qualifying but won 2.47.

The other is more of a wildcard. Ryan Christie enjoyed a quietly impressive campaign with Bournemouth in the Premier League, which may force him into Clarke's plans for Germany. He was a bit-part player in qualifying, but with 47 caps, he has experience and is certainly a valid candidate to play a significant role here.

During Christie's 321 qualifying minutes, he posted 12 fouls conceded (3.33 per 90) and 10 won (2.78 per 90). On a match-by-match basis, he is worth watching in both categories should he earn a start.

For insightful and smart football betting predictions catering to all types of bettors, you should visit my website, Andy's Bet Club. My Opta-powered bet builder stats tool is a great resource for bettors for the remainder of the domestic season, Euro 2024, and beyond. You can join my growing community over on Twitter or X.

Now read more Euro 2024 tips and previews here.

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