Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Quarter-Final Stat Pack: No cards or goals at 266/1? Go on then...

Euro 2024 Day 22 Tips
Lewis is back with his Day 22 tips

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - sees two very different quarter-finals playing out at Euro 2024 with excitment guarenteed in Spain v Germany but a bore-draw on the cards in Portugal v France...

Spain v Germany (17:00) - Corners and Ruiz shots offer up 13/2 punt

The trends boys will tell you European Championship quarter-finals are cagey affairs. The 0-0 strike rate is at a whopping 21% for all quarter-finals since Euro 1996 and draws are working at a 39% hit rate. Being a fully paid-up member to the trend boys I fully respect these numbers but for this game, my gut and eyes are taking over. This one surely could escalate into a classic European Championship encounter.

These two top the charts for goals scored, shots on target and expected goals at Euro 2024. Both managers like to play an aggressive game that leave their centre-backs exposed to counters, which is going to make a for a compelling watch.

Only Portugal have won more corners than Germany (7.75 per 90) and Spain (7.25 per 90) at these championships and that's where the best value bets are found.

A high corner count looks on the cards as neither team is likely to take a pull even if the game-state sees one of them taking a lead. This isn't Gareth Southgate football.

Both these two will make attacking their best form of defence. With that in mind, I really like both teams to win at least five corners each. Spain play with such great width and cause overloads with their full-backs which leads to corner winning opportunities whilst Germany are very direct in their approach too.

Spain have won five or more corners in their last 10 fixtures whilst Germany are on a run of eight games of winning at least five corners.

I'm happy to back both to clear that line in a Bet Builder with Fabian Ruiz to have at least two shots in the match that brings out a juicy 13/27.50 shot. The Spanish midfielder is encouraged to join the front four and is finding lots of shooting opportunities dropping his way - and when they drop, he doesn't mind at all taking them on. In his last nine starts for Spain, he has posted 27 shots to a per match average of three shots per 90, including 11 in his three starts at this tournament.

Portugal v France (20:00) - Under everything!

If Spain v Germany is going to be as pulsating as expected, then this one could be where we have our comedown.

A mellow game looks on the cards. Fine margins are going to be at play which makes the outright market a real headscratcher to assess. I don't want to back France at 7/52.40 and I don't want to back Portugal at 12/53.40 either. The draw is a huge runner at 19/10 but is short enough.

Opposing goals and cards looks the smart way to approach this then. France have only scored via two own-goals and a penalty at this tournament as their attack has failed to find any sort of groove. They had 16 shots off target in the win over Belgium.

Meanwhile, Portugal don't look right to me. Whether that's to do with revolving their game around an ageing and clearly uncomfortable in his own skin Ronaldo or just the general tactics employed by the manager, they now haven't scored in the last 244 minutes of football. Under 0.5 goals is live at 6/17.00.

The referee appointment of Michael Oliver means we can chase the ultimate dream bore draw scenario here of no goals and no cards at 266/1.

Oliver has shown just four cards in his three games at Euro 2024, implementing a very lenient approach when it comes to dishing out cards. It's something we've seen from him in the Premier League over the last three seasons, where his cards per game average is just 3.6 per 90.

This game has all the hallmarks of a proper drifter so Oliver may not be called upon to make many big decisions regarding cards, especially if he keeps his cards in his pocket early doors.

Football Only Bettor Podcast - Listen to Quarter Final tips here!

Now read our England v Switzerland early tipping piece here!

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