Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Predictions: Mark's best bets including 40/1 goals special & 100/1 EW shout

Football odds compiler Mark Stinchcombe
Mark is putting his faith in 100/1 Ukraine

Football Only Bettor podcast talent Mark Stinchcombe has penned his debut article for Betting.Betfair ahead of Euro 2024, picking out his five best bets across a range of markets.

Betfair are offering customers a chance to earn a free bet each time the side they back to win Euro 2024 (£10 stake) scores a goal during the group stages. Do you opt for a side who is likely to go deep, like France, or, is your faith in a Portugal side who banged in 36 goals in 10 qualifying matches?

Romelu Lukaku is toward the top of the Golden Boot market after finishing the qualifying campaign as the top scorer with 14 goals - that was 64% of Belgium's 22 goals, so could he and the Red Devils be the side to back with the offer in mind?

Perhaps it is an outsider you fancy to surprise us all - like the much fancied Austria, Hungary or Ukraine, and a few goals in their opening three games could well pay you back for your faith in them before the tournament, and hope their big price takes you all the way!

Make sure you opt-in on the Betfair Sportsbook before the opening game and place a £10 bet (or £5 EW) in the Winner market to qualify!

Bet #1 - Ukraine to win Euro 2024 (EW) @ 100/1101.00

In a group with Slovakia, Romania and Belgium, Ukraine are just 3/101.30 to qualify given how much better the market rates them than both Slovakia and Romania. The best four 3rd place teams also qualify and since the groups were expanded in 2016, three of the 8 teams have managed to qualify with just three points.

Ukraine don't face Belgium until the last match when potentially the latter have already qualified, so arguably the schedule has fallen in their favour too.

Their squad is stacked with talent. Two good strikers in Artem Dovbyk, the top scorer in La Liga, and Roman Yaremchuk. Mykhaylo Mudryk, Viktor Tsyhankov, Heorhiy Sudakov and Ruslan Malinovskyi are very dangerous attacking midfielders with Oleksandr Zinchenko providing cover in defensive midfield to allow them freedom.

At centre-back they have two solid defenders in Illya Zabarnyi and Mykola Matviyenko both standing at 6ft+ tall, with the craft and guile of Vitaliy Mykolenko at left-back. Finally, they have two highly-rated goalkeepers in Andriy Lunin, who helped Madrid knockout Bayern, Man City and Leipzig en-route to winning the Champions League, and Benfica stopper Anatoliy Trubin.

They had to qualify through the play-offs but remember they had to play all their games away from home in a group containing both England and Italy. Over the last 12 months they are unbeaten in games v England, Germany x2 and Italy. Odds wise they are an attractive proposition given they were 11/102.11 to win in Bosnia and 4/71.57 v Iceland in the playoffs.

That's replicated with Ukraine being 1/12.00 in their opener v Romania and 10/111.91 v Slovakia, so it's very much worth chancing them to go far. We are getting 50/151.00 they make the final when they're only 9/110.00 to make the semis. Get out the group and we're only two games away from a semi-final.

Bet #2 - Pedri to win Young player of the tournament @ 10/111.00

What I like in this market is there are a lot of players with question marks of a) whether they will even start and b) whether they will play in their preferred position. Operating between the #10 and #8 position, not only will Pedri start, but the team is arguably built around him with the Barcelona man linking play from the holding midfielders into the wide men and striker.

At the last World Cup he averaged over 100 passes per-game to give an idea of the influence he can have. Jude Bellingham is the favourite at 3/14.00 here but he comes into the tournament having played a colossal 101 matches in the last two seasons and noticeably dropped off towards the end of season having scored 20 goals in his first 29 for Madrid, but then only three in his last 13. Pedri only started 21 games this season for Barcelona in-comparison. There is perhaps some bias here given Pedri won it at the last EUROs but with Spain just 4/111.36 to make the quarter-finals and thus play 5+ matches, he is just too good to turn down.

Spain have history at the EUROs for winning best player awards given their dominance of the ball, with Andres Iniesta winning best player in 2012 and Xavi in 2008. Clearly the voters like what they see.

Bet #3 - Artem Dovbyk to score 2 or more goals (group stages) @ 6/42.50

Dovbyk scored 24 goals in just 32 starts in La Liga this season and has nine goals in just 13 starts for his country. He takes penalties as well, and with Ukraine's match odds forecasting them to score around five tournament goals, with Dovbyk the central striker, he should be expected to score around 33% of their goals.

This equates to 1.7 goals and in-turn makes him 1/12.00 to score over 1.5 goals. We can back him at 6/42.50. He's also been backed into 45/146.00 from a three-figure price in the Top Goalscorer market.

Bet #4 - Back 10 or more own goals @ 9/110.00

A fun bet here which is always important and one that should keep you interested in every match. There's not a lot of science here but there doesn't always need to be and sometimes you have to go with your gut.

There happened to be 11 own goals at EURO 2020 from 142 goals and with a similar amount forecasted this time around, it seems rude not to chance it. For balance, there were only two at the World Cup in 2022 (from a bigger number of games) and only three at the last EUROs but then 12 at World Cup 2018 just to show the volatility.

It's a fun bet at 9/110.00 given more teams like to play out from the back and the added confusion that can cause with the risk involved. Over 12.5 is 80/181.00 for those who enjoy comedy football.

Bet #5 - Rodri, Gundogan and Sabitzer to each score 2 or more goals @ 40/141.00

I like the look of this bet given all three midfielders here take penalties. EURO 2020 saw the number of penalties awarded increase by 33% v EURO 2016 with the implementation of VAR.

Rodri will play the deepest of the three in holding midfield but crucially is now on penalty duties for a team forecasted to score 8+ goals. He dispatched two in a friendly with Brazil in March and comes into this tournament on the back of eight goals in the Premier League for Man City.

Ilkay Gundogan will occupy the #10 position in Julian Nagelsmann's 4-2-3-1 formation for Germany providing excellent opportunities to get forward and score from open play. He has seven in his last 18 60+ minute games for Die Mannschaft with the hosts forecasted to score 10+ goals.

Marcel Sabitzer is arguably the riskiest part of the bet here given Austria find themselves in a group with France and Netherlands. However, they are still 4/61.67 to qualify and boss Ralf Rangnick (yes him) boasts a very impressive W11 D2 L1 record in charge so confidence should be high.

Sabitzer will occupy one of the three attacking positions behind the lone striker and has five goals in his last 10 games for the national team seemingly flourishing under his new manager.

Listen to Football...Only Bettor Euro 2024 preview with Alan Shearer

Now read Mark O'Haire's team by team guide with Betfair's free bet offer in mind!

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.