Euro 2024 Group Stage Bet Builder Special: Back Group stage 144/1 shot

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Maguire's threat underrated by the markets

Harry Maguire is a punters pal when putting on the England shirt.

When on song, he is a colossus of a dual winner, and few defend their box with the same level of authority. He remains a key player for Gareth Southgate, who knows the weapons Maguire brings to the table, especially in the opposition box from set pieces. England are so deadly from them - and that's no fluke with Maguire the focal point.

Maguire has scored seven goals in 63 caps for his country and remains one of a few select players to score in two different knockout matches at major tournaments for England (vs Sweden and Ukraine).

However, it's been 21 games since he last found the net for England - not for the want of trying having had 21 shots his last 15 starts for England. The tactic from every corner or free-kick routine revolves around Maguire being the first point of contact, meaning you always get a great run for your money on him in the goalscorer markets. Betfair have dangled the carrot of 13/53.60 for him the score in the group stages. That'll do nicely.

Andersen can break duck at 9/2

Talking of centre-backs set to play in Group C, Joachim Andersen stood out at the prices at 9/25.50 regarding his chances of scoring in the group stage for Denmark. The Crystal Palace defender has been threatening to open his tally for his country, firing 12 shots in his last 11 starts for the Danes, who are notoriously strong from set piece situations.

The impressive Palace defender has an eye for a goal as shown by his fantastic finish for Palace away at Manchester United earlier this season. He'll break his international duck soon enough.

McTominay is Scotland's chief threat

I'm very much keen to back Scott McTominay to score one or more goals at 11/53.20 for Scotland in Group A.

The Scots are very short in the striking department with only Che Adams and Lawrence Shankland to call upon to lead the line, neither of whom have flourished on the international stage. Goals will need to flow from elsewhere and McTominay has been the man for that job for country and club actually.

He's bagged 12 goals from just 3,502 minutes for club and country since the start of August (averaging a goal every 292 minutes) and was Scotland's go-to-guy in the goals department during qualifying.

McTominay netted seven goals, finishing as the fifth-highest goalscorer behind Romelu Lukaku, Cristiano Ronaldo, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane. He's great in the air, brilliant at timing his runs into the box and is a reliable finisher. All we need is for him to bag once for this to land - it's a cracking value play.

Kane's foul drawn numbers hard to ignore

Harry Kane to be fouled six or more times in the Group Stage looked chunky at 13/102.30 when you assess Kane's data for winning fouls at major tournaments for England.

Just a quick drawing down of the data and the raw numbers makes that price look attractive. Kane has drawn 44 fouls in 18 major tournaments games, working to an average of 2.44 fouls drawn per 90. If he hits that average in the three group games in Germany, the expectation would be for him to win 7.32 fouls going by the numbers.

Of course, it's not an exact science, but it provides a good guide of the true line around Evens being seven or more rather than six. Yet, we can attain 13/10 (implied probability of 43 per cent) of him being fouled six times.

With Kane dropping deep to pick up possession for England in Group C, he will have a target on his back especially against opposition like Serbia and Slovenia who will be keen on stopping the flow to England's playmaker extraordinaire. Colombia fouled him nine times across 120 minutes in the 2018 World Cup last-16 encounter - those numbers in a one-off game are unlikely but Kane has the game to rack up big numbers in this metric which makes that 13/102.30 price very appealing.

The beauty of these markets is that we can combine all four prices into a Bet Builder/four-fold. I'm happy to dream big and back all four to land at a whopping 144/1

Now read Kevin Hatchard's Golden Boot player profile piece.

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