England Squad: Back 13/8 Gordon and 13/2 JWP to make Southgate's 23 for Euro 2024

• Dunk to beat out plethora of rivals

• Midfield nearly set in stone

• Big names set to miss out up front

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All odds quoted refer to players' chances of making Gareth Southgate's England squad for Euro 2024.

Not left back in Blighty

Injuries steer our thinking when it comes to the full-back roles.

Chelsea's classy duo of Reece James 9/43.25 and Ben Chilwell 4/91.44 would be shoo-ins if fully fit. But James' situation remains unclear, the 24-year-old last playing competitive minutes in December.

Chilwell's odds don't square with a player cursed with hamstring problems. In his last three seasons, the left-back has only been available for 42.9% of Chelsea's league fixtures.

Similarly, Luke Shaw 2/13.00 has missed most of 2023/24 while Kieran Trippier 2/91.22 should be swerved in the betting due to fatigue setting in of late. Over-utilized, the 33-year-old has started to pick up a succession of niggling strains.

So it is that we turn our attention to a defender who ironically would have been picked for the friendlies against Brazil and Belgium this week were it not for a toe injury. Thankfully, it's a short-term complaint.

Levi Colwill 5/61.84 has previously been selected for just one England squad but he acquitted himself well against Australia deployed at left-back, reassuring Southgate he can step up to the international stage. Statistically Chelsea's best performing defender this term, his versatility will be viewed as a huge plus and this is especially true this summer with squad sizes reduced to 23.

So far this season, Colwill has played 16 times at left-back and 15 times in the middle, impressing almost all of the time.

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Dunking on rivals

Beyond Harry Maguire 1/71.14 and John Stones 1/121.08, Southgate has a plethora of centre-backs to choose from, all of whom have valid claims to be on the plane.

Ezri Konsa 23/103.30 has been selected for the last two England squads and the pacy stopper a big factor in Aston Villa's rise this term. What counts against him is that he has yet to play a single minute of international action.

Marc Guehi 5/61.84 meanwhile has been selected for five of Southgate's six squads post-Qatar and very much has his manager's trust. He's a strong contender.

Fikayo Tomori 9/25.50 is another shout, but the AC Milan star will likely be kicking his heels this summer in frustration.

And let's not overlook Jarrad Branthwaite 4/71.57, the breakthrough act of 2023/24. Should the Everton youngster perform well against Belgium on Tuesday evening he will surely be in the reckoning.

Yet, when pitting value against probability, it's Lewis Dunk 8/111.73 who stands out.

Equally adept on the left or right of a centre-back pairing, the Brighton man has been outstanding in recent weeks, finding his best form at just the right time.

He is sixth in the Premier League for successful blocks while 104.8 passes per 90 shows how many Brighton attacks start with him.

Furthermore, Dunk is a genuine threat at set-pieces, a notable consideration when it comes to knockout football.

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Midfield understudy

England's engine-room heading to Germany will very likely be staffed by the same five who have been selected for this week's friendlies - Declan Rice 1/251.04, Jude Bellingham 1/201.05, Henderson 2/51.40, Conor Gallagher 3/101.30 and James Maddison 1/31.33 - with the addition of one other.

That simply has to be Cole Palmer 1/31.33, given his astonishing numbers in 2023/24.

Unfortunately, there is little value to be found among all six concerning their selections, with each looking nailed on. That leaves us then acknowledging the distinct possibility of an injury occurring between now and June, and identifying the most feasible alternative.

This initially leads us to Kobbie Mainoo 5/61.84, who looks destined to be a regular fixture in the Three Lions' midfield for years to come, going off his sensational introduction to Premier League football this season.

There is also his late call-up to consider, to immerse himself in the England environment and train at St Geroge's Park.

But will Southgate trust an inexperienced player in a key position against the continent's elite? He has already admitted having doubts.

No, a Steady Eddie is needed. A man who has rarely let Southgate down. Step forward, James Ward-Prowse 13/27.50.

The West Ham midfielder's stats this term are pretty decent, if not spectacular. He has averaged 1.9 key passes per 90. He has averaged 39.6 accurate passes, exactly the same return as Palmer.

And as ever, his dead-ball expertise makes him a valuable addition.

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Sixth attacker

If Southgate goes with six attackers, as expected, it's very easy to deduce who four of them will be, while a fifth is all but a cert.

Imagine a world where any one of Harry Kane 1/201.05, Phil Foden 1/141.07 or Bukayo Saka 1/201.05 is omitted from the final 23. The shock would be akin to an earthquake. Marcus Rashford 4/111.36, meanwhile, is almost certainly Germany-bound for his unique attributes down the left and proven impact at the highest level.

That leaves Kane's understudy and one other, the former being a straight shoot-out between Ollie Watkins 1/41.25 and Ivan Toney 5/61.84. The Villa man takes this quite comfortably due to his splendid return of 32 goal involvements across all competitions in 2023/24.

As for the sixth attacker, most realistically there are three in contention - Jack Grealish 4/111.36, Anthony Gordon 13/82.63 and Jarrod Bowen 11/102.11.

Grealish's sustained injury woes puts a big doubt on him. Moreover, Cole Palmer's inclusion nudges the City winger out, even if he is cast as a midfielder.

Bowen meanwhile is in the running. How can he not be, considering his 14 goal haul this season, with many of them converted when stationed out wide?

Undermining his chances, however ,is a fairly ineffective outing against Australia last autumn, his only England appearance in two years.

All of which potentially opens the door for Gordon, who himself has notched nine times (see table above) while taking on 2.1 shots per 90. Tenacious and full of endeavour, it's revealing that Southgate has picked him this week despite the wide-man not being completely fit.

He wants the player to give him a tough decision in the weeks and months ahead.

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Now read Jones Knows Notebook: Back Chelsea for a top-six finish at 11/4

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