Jones Knows Notebook: Back Chelsea for a top-six finish at 11/4

• Chelsea are a team to follow over the run-in

• Pochettino has found the key in attacking areas

• With Man Utd vulnerable, back Chelsea to make top-six at 11/43.75

• Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here

I do love this time of year. Spring is springing, the final international break is all but over and our batteries are recharged for the end of season run-in.

Playoffs, Champions League knockouts, huge Premier League encounters and a European Championships in the distance where England are favourites.

Oh boy. It's what it's all about.

It's also a period in the season where I'm happy to get involved in outright league markets despite there being only 10 or 11 games left. Latching onto a team set for a strong end to the campaign whilst assessing the strength of schedule data can lead to some edges being found in certain outright markets.

And I think I've spotted one with Chelsea's prospects of finishing in the top-six at 11/43.75 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Tottenham 1/1001.01 and Aston Villa 1/661.02 are away and gone in terms of their top-six chances so Chelsea are only playing for one spot but Manchester United are very lukewarm at 4/71.57 and can be ousted.

Yes, I'm fully aware Chelsea sit 11^th in the Premier League table but such is the condensed nature of the league this season, the gap to United in sixth is only eight points - plus, Chelsea have a game in hand and are still to welcome United to Stamford Bridge on Thursday 4 April.

Early indications show they'll be hovering around 1/12.00 to win that match. If it was played tomorrow, that's a price I'd be lapping up.

Chelsea still have to play four of the bottom five, with three of those fixtures - v Burnley, Sheffield United and Everton - coming in the next four gameweeks.

Already boasting an unbeaten record of eight games (during 90 minutes), this momentum generated by this Chelsea unbeaten run should continue when Mauricio Pochettino's men return from the international break during such a soft period of fixtures.

So, already, that eight-point gap is looking manageable to chase down without even factoring in Chelsea's recent resurgence in form, especially in forward areas.

Palmer & Gusto show the future is bright for Chelsea

Pochettino has found a consistent formula in the way his team construct attacks that is making them one of the most dangerous attacking teams in the Premier League.

In their last eight matches across all competitions, Chelsea have scored 19 goals and are regularly overperforming their expected goals by about 0.45 per game, which is a complete flip to the period between August and January where they regularly underperformed their xG in front of goal. These are all very positive signs for Pochettino's men, who have in that time held both Manchester City and Liverpool in 90 minutes whilst beating Aston Villa and Newcastle.

Chelsea have produced an underlying process that have had them in and around the top-six all season in terms of analysing various expected points models. The market always gives them respect because of this - and usually listening to market vibes is a shrewd way of profiting in the long-run. The evidence is starting to show that results are now catching up with performances.

There is a consistency to their play. A plan. It mostly involves finding Cole Palmer in pockets of space and utilising the ever-growing skillset of Malo Gusto down the right side. His performances are getting better week-by-week.

Both were exceptional yet again on Sunday in the FA Cup win over Leicester, where Gusto delivered the goods at 9/25.50 for the Jones Knows believers.

There has been no mention of Chelsea missing Reece James, which speaks volumes for the output, both defensively and in forward areas, Gusto is producing. He is a star in the making.

The cohesion at the heart of their defence does remain a problem but their overall expected goals against metrics this season (40.88) have them higher rated than Aston Villa (42.43), Manchester United (48.25) and Tottenham (47.49).

It's been scoring goals that has been holding them back rather than shipping them.

Now that is remedied, Chelsea do have the building blocks in place to have a strong ending to the campaign. Manchester United beware.

Now read Mike's in-depth review of the PL title race!

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