Euro 2024

Spain v England Early Tips: Is over 2.5 goals & both teams to score at 7/4 value?

Gareth Southgate has led England to another Euro final

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - wastes no time in setting the scene for the Euro 2024 final and believes there looks huge early value in backing goals and both teams to score...

Spain v England SuperBoost

England have made it to back-to-back European Championship finals and Betfair are offering up a SuperBoost to mark the occasion.

English football fans all know about Chelsea's Marc Cucurella, who has committed six fouls at Euro 2024 so far, and managing at least one offence in each of his five appearances at the tournament.

England (84) are the most fouled team in Germany, and boast Jude Bellingham (14) and Harry Kane (11) as two of the top four most fouled players in the competition.

He will also be most likely directly up against Arsenal's Bukayo Saka, who has won 10 fouls at the tournament so far, at 1.7 per 90, and, for whom he has previous with.

In both Arsenal v Chelsea meetings in the Premier League last season, Cucurella committed two fouls directly on Bukayo Saka in each game, and was involved in 10 fouls across the two matches (fouls won + fouls conceded).

Spain v England has goals written all over it at - back it!

And then there were just two. It's 4/61.67 Spain against 11/102.11 England to decide who will triumph as kings of Euro 2024.

An epic showdown awaits.

Spain are going to make England come out their shell and engage in what may actually be a trends and market defying European Championship final. History suggests these games rarely catch fire with seven of the last eight finals going under the 2.5 goals line, however, Spain only know one way of playing. They take risks. They press high. They get the ball forward and look for overloads knowing they have the ultimate insurance policy in Rodri protecting them from the counter-attacks.

It's lead to exciting, goal heavy matches, no matter the opposition. Spain's games have averaged 2.5 goals per game in 90 minutes with that figure boosting to 4.3 in the knockout stages where they've failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three games.

The underlying numbers point from a defensive point of view will serve as further hope for anyone thinking along the same lines that goals might just be on the menu on Sunday.

Spain have shipped 11 shots per game, conceded 13.5 open play crosses per game (the 10th most of any team in the competitions), have an expected goals against record of 1.25 per 90 which is only the ninth best and have overperformed their expected goals data by 1.37 - only the Swiss overperformed more.

England won't want this final to descend into a free-flowing, chance-heavy shootout but I'm not sure they'll have a choice up against this Spanish side. Whether that's triggered by falling behind or finding pathways to the Spanish goal more welcoming than what is usually the case in finals, the market is sleeping a little on this game being an exciting one. At the time of writing, there is 7/42.75 on offer for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals landing. That's a bet.

Roll on Sunday.

Now read Jamie Kemp's focus on Spain ahead of the Euro 2024 final.

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