Euro 2012 Team Guide: Poland

Road to Euro 2012

It's impossible to have too much of a specific idea about how Poland are playing as their road to the tournament involved them being elected as co hosts, and friendly matches are never the best guide to form, but this is a squad to be taken seriously: talented players, key performers in some big European teams, home advantage and a favourable draw. They're evenly matched with their group rivals, as their most recent head to heads prove, but with Russia and Czech Republic potentially fading forces at this level, they'll never have a better chance of rekindling the glories of the 1970s and early 1980s. Poland haven't qualified for the knockout stages of a major tournament since 1986 and now could be their time to at least do that, if not, because of a tough post group phase draw, go any further.

The Manager

The veteran coach Francisek Smuda was a defender as a player but doesn't allow that to influence his coaching philosophy too much. He is well travelled in a career that started in 1983, and this is his 20th coaching job. His greatest moment as a coach came in 1996, when his Widzew Lodz team went unbeaten for a League season, and so he is clearly capable of getting players to over achieve. He's a grumpy individual, and not overly well liked by his players by all accounts. That may start to change if the team gets on a roll here.

The Star

I've already written a piece on this very website suggesting that Robert Lewandowski might be too short a price to finish as Top Goalscorer at Euro 2012, and I stand by that comment, but that's not a slur on his quality, more a feeling that markets tend to overreact to players who have standout seasons. Lewandowski was exceptional this campaign, taking Dortmund to the title and scoring key goals, none more so than the winner in the game that stopped a nation, against Bayern Munich. He scored 22 League goals in all last season, and at 23 has to be attracting the attention of some even bigger clubs. Only two players scored more Bundesliga goals than him last season, and a bare look at those statistics suggests that if you had to choose between Mario Gomez (10.09/1 to finish Top Goalscorer), Klaas Jan Huntelaar (18.017/1) and Lewandowski (26.025/1) then the Pole would be the choice. I think that he's short enough at that price, and he'll be tightly marshalled as Poland's big attacking threat. He'll have a terrific tournament, and his value will increase as more people become aware of his quality, but he's not a betting proposition.

The Youngster

It's not too often these days that Arsene Wenger has bragging rights over Sir Alex Ferguson in a key area of the pitch, but in the battle of the young goalkeepers there really is only one winner. I know that he made the occasional mistake towards the end of the season, but 22 year old Wojcech Szczesny has been magnificent. In a season which hadn't featured a certain Dutchman, the Pole would have been Arsenal's Player of the season by a long way, and he seems to be improving. He's only just reaching double figures in terms of caps (although has already eclipsed the seven caps won by his father) and as the mistakes become less frequent, he will only get better.

The Rock

One tends to think of rocks as defensive players, and the majority of the "rocks" in these previews have been exactly that, but movement of the ball will be so important to the way that Poland will look to play in the summer that their playmaker fits this particular bill. Ludovic Obraniak was always an under the radar player during his time at Lille, but since scoring the winner in the Cup Final and moving to Bordeaux in the summer he has got the profile, and the place in the national team, that he deserves. Obraniak will play as the centre of the three in Poland's 4-2-3-1 formation, and as such he'll have to play well to allow the likes of Lewandowski and the Polish captain Kuba to influence the game. His delivery from free kicks is deadly and his presence in the side crucial. He scored twice on his international debut against Greece, and if you subscribe to the theory that certain players like playing against certain teams, then he'll be a decent price to score in the group game against the same opposition.

The Bet

The much discussed weakest group at Euro 2012 may not have that much impact on the competition. Poland will be up against a heavyweight in the quarter finals and you have to feel that their interest will probably end there, but I think that they're good enough to make it out of the group and they're certainly the more dangerous of the two co hosts. Providing that the injury cloud which is currently hanging over a couple of defensive players lifts soon enough, then I think that they're value to qualify, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if their match against the Czechs is a lively one. It will be worth looking for a decent over 2.5 goal price in that one. I think that Russia are overrated and have the potential to disappoint, the Czechs are fading, and Poland are value to win the group at their current price of 3.7511/4.