Ukraine v Sweden: More misery for home supporters

Ukraine v Sweden, Live on BBC1, 19:45 KO, Match Odds: Ukraine 2.66, Sweden 3.05, The Draw 3.35

Match Odds
Poland's stuttering start to the tournament (which we predicted here) shows home advantage is not necessarily an advantage at this tournament. There are enough problems in co-hosts Ukraine's camp to suggest they will also drop points in their opening game.

Progress has been patchy since Oleg Blokhin took over as coach last year, and injuries and squabbles in the camp have also contributed to imperfect preparations. Looking at how Ukraine and Sweden have played over the past 18 months, it's obvious the only reason Ukraine are favourites is the fact they are playing in front of their own fans in Kiev.

But for me this will not be enough to collect all three points against an impressive Sweden. Erik Hamren's side qualified behind Holland from Group E with a highly respectable points tally of 24 from a possible 30, and have talent and experience in most areas of the field. The likes of Olof Mellberg, Anders Svensson, Kim Kallstrom and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are well-versed in the demands of international football, and have the quality to comfortably avoid defeat.

Backing Sweden or the draw are the only possible bets in this market as Ukraine's chances have been overrated.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Everything about the way this game is set-up points towards goals. There will be pressure on Ukraine from the media, fans and within the camp to take the game to Sweden. From the outset, fellow co-hosts Poland pressed high up the field and looked to get into attacking positions in their opening game. I expect the same from Blokhin's side.

Secondly, Sweden's attack is stronger than their defence. Nine of their 10 qualifiers featured over 2.5 goals, with six of those games containing over 3.5 goals. Finland, Moldova and Hungary all scored against them. Ibrahimovic has the potential to be among the tournament's leading scorers.

Ukraine's approach and Sweden's strengths and weaknesses suggest chances will occur at both ends. Overs at 2.466/4 is a smarter bet than unders at 1.674/6.

Both Teams to Score?
'Yes' in this market around evens is a good alternative to overs, as you'll have the 1-1 draw on your side. You'll only lose out by backing 'Yes' instead of overs if one of the sides wins 3-0 or 4-0, and that appears unlikely. I'd rather have the 1-1 draw covered, so this would be my pick.

DRAW NO BET

Sweden would be my selection in the match odds market but the price on the underdogs is big enough that you can back them at decent odds with the safety net of getting your money back should the game end in the draw. Sweden DRAW NO BET and Sweden -0 Asian handicap selections operate in exactly the same way - that is, you'll win if Sweden win the match, and get your money back should the game end in a draw. So it's basically a question of seeing which of the two prices is bigger when you log on and then picking accordingly.

Prices above evens on both markets are great value considering Sweden look the stronger of the two sides.

Best Bet
Sweden DRAW NO BET @ 2.1211/10

Other Recommended Bet
'Yes' in Both Teams to Score? market @ 1.991/1

James Eastham has picked four winners out of four at the finals so far. You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham

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