Poland v Greece: Hosts set for stuttering start

Poland v Greece, 17:00 KO, Live on BBC1, Match Odds: Poland 2.06, Greece 4.6, The Draw 3.35.

Match Odds

In the opening match of Euro 2004, Otto Rehhagel's Greece stunned home supporters when they saw off Portugal 2-1. The manager may have changed since - Portuguese boss Fernando Santos took over in 2010 - but Greece look well-equipped to cause another opening-day upset on Friday afternoon.

Unbeaten in 10 qualifiers, Greece collected 24pts from a possible 30 to surprise many observers by topping Group F ahead of Croatia. The resolute defending that saw them lift the Henri Delaunay trophy eight years ago remains a feature of the side: they conceded just five goals in those 10 qualifying games. That competitive record suggests they'll be good enough to get a draw, and are a decent bet to get out of the group (as Dave Farrar underlines here).

Poland have home advantage but are under immense pressure. Friendly results have been unconvincing and they're the lowest-placed of the 16 teams in the tournament on the Fifa rankings. And few hosts make winning starts at the Euros - West Germany (1988), Sweden (1992) and England (1996) all drew, while Portugal (2004), Switzerland and Austria (2008) lost.

Poland look too short, so lay the hosts or back the draw.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals

It's reasonable to expect this to be a low-scoring game. Greece will try to silence the crowd in the opening half-hour and have the defensive record (see above) to shut out the Poles for longer than that. Seven of Greece's 10 qualifiers had under 2.5 goals and, as Opta point out, Greece had the lowest goals-per-game rate (1.4) of any side reaching the finals.

Poland's goalscoring hopes rest on Robert Lewandowski, who has made his mark at Borussia Dortmund (read about him here). Ludovic Obraniak is a capable midfield finisher and often dangerous from set-pieces, but looking through the Poland side they appear anything but free-scoring.

Unders is the logical selection at 1.491/2 as opposed to overs at 3.02/1. Under 1.5 goals is also worth considering at 2.568/5 as this looks likely to be one of the lower-scoring games of the first round of matches.

Both Teams to Score?

Given this is likely to be a low-scoring game, 'No' in the Both Teams to Score? category is worth considering at 1.664/6. Both teams failed to score in 17/31 (55%) of Euro 2008 games, and the defensive quality plus paucity of proven attacking talent on both sides makes 'No' the sensible selection.

Correct Score
An alternative to backing 'unders' would be to split your stakes across a variety of low-scoring correct scorelines. 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 and 0-1 are all worth considering, with odds between 6.411/2 and 10.519/2 offering the potential of a long-priced winner.

Best Bet
James Eastham says lay Poland at 2.0811/10

Other Recommended Bet
Under 2.5 Goals at 1.491/2

James Eastham made a profit tipping on @BetfairSports at the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America. You can follow him on Twitter: @james_eastham

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