Euro 2012 Betting: Italy vs Northern Ireland

Italy vs Northern Ireland, KO 19:45 BST

Match Odds: Italy 1.222/9, Northern Ireland 20.019/1, the draw 7.26/1

When the final whistle blew on Northern Ireland's 2-1 home defeat to Estonia on Friday, Nigel Worthington's men must have looked upon their ecstatic opponents with a mix of envy and despair. Northern Ireland were 1-0 up with just 13 minutes left, but tossed away all three points to allow the visitors to go second in Group C. Northern Ireland's qualification hopes had already been buried by a 4-1 hammering in Tallinn - a game which featured a comedic defensive display the likes of Charlie Chaplin or Fatty Arbuckle would have been proud to produce.

While Estonia are on the up, Northern Ireland are facing a period of introspection. The Italy match will be Worthington's last in charge - he will step down after collecting just two wins from 23 matches. Lee Camp, Chris Brunt, Sammy Clingan and Grant McCann are all injured while striker Kyle Lafferty is suspended, so Worthington's indicated he'll give some youngsters a chance to shine.

Italy have progressed serenely into next year's finals, with seven wins and two draws. Their away form has been patchy (they only beat the Faroes 1-0 and drew 0-0 in Northern Ireland), but at home they've won all four of their matches. Coach Cesare Prandelli is preaching humility and caution, stating that his side are drawing too many plaudits. That said, the odds of them beating a patched-up and demoralised Northern Ireland at 1.222/9 look about right.

Over/under 2.5 goals

Italy's progress has been built on a solid defence, with just two goals conceded. At the other end Prandelli's men have misfired of late, scoring just once in each of their last three qualifiers. Indeed, just two of Italy's last nine internationals have featured more than 2.5 goals, so you could make a case for backing under 2.5 goals at 2.1411/10. However, Northern Ireland have looked brittle in their last two games against Estonia, so I'm leaning towards backing over 2.5 goals at 1.845/6

Correct score?

I can't see Italy's defence being breached, so it then becomes a question of how many the Azzurri will score. They haven't regularly run riot in this group, so back 2-0 at 6.25/1 and 3-0 at 7.06/1

Recommended Bet: Back over 2.5 goals at 1.845/6

Best Bet: Back Italy to win 2-0 at 6.25/1 and 3-0 at 7.06/1

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