Euro 2012 Day Five: A Pilar of strength

Greece v Czech Republic

First goalscorer

This encounter is set up for goals. The Czech Republic must win to keep their fate in their own hands while Greece will begin to feel nervous about qualification if they fail to take the spoils. For goal bettors there is the added bonus of Greece being depleted at the back. They are without first-choice centre-backs Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Avraam Papadopoulos, who are banned and injured respectively.

That makes the Czechs more likely first goalscorers. And the man to watch out for is Vaclav Pilar. His threat was discussed when this column previewed their defeat to Russia. Pilar got on the scoresheet in that match and found the target with each of his four shots. He is a juicy-looking 16.0015/1 for honours.

To score

A more fun and realistic market to play if our expectations of goals are to be realised. That man Pilar is 8.4015/2. Milan Baros, who don't forget was top scorer at Euro 2004, remains a threat and is priced at 4.1031/10. Tomas Rosicky, the Arsenal man, may have to ghost in late to catch out a disciplined Greek rearguard and he can be backed at 6.6011/2.

Dimitris Salpingidis, who plays on the right of the Greek forward three, scored the only goal when these teams last met, in a friendly in 2008. He is 5.509/2.

It will be interesting to see what happens if Greece win another penalty. Giorgos Karagounis missed from the spot against Poland. It was the third spot-kick in a row they have missed with Kostas Katsouranis and Giorgos Samaras failing previously. The trio are 9.4017/2, 9.4017/2 and 5.509/2 to get on the scoresheet.

Recommended bet
Pilar to score @ 8.4015/2

Poland v Russia

First goalscorer

Russia produced the team performance of the first round of matches and plenty of observers will be tuning in to see if they can repeat it against the co-hosts in a match which is not just about football. Political and historical rivalries are simmering under the surface in this one.

That may hinder the Poles more than the Russians as their coach admitted that they crumbled under the weight of expectancy in the second half of their 1-1 draw with Greece.

Poland had 13 shots against Greece, scoring once and it is likely a Russia side who are unbeaten in 15 matches will not be so benevolent. By contrast, Russia had 17 shots on target against the Czechs and scored four. That should give a strong clue as to how to bet on this market.

Aleksandr Kerzhakov missed several good chances and if you believe he can change his fortunes he is 8.4015/2. Otherwise Andrey Arshavin, who was so inspirational Arsenal fans are questioning why he doesn't play like that for them, is 10.009/1.

To score

Poland's best hope of goal comes in the shape of Robert Lewandowski, who has a formidable understanding with his Borussia Dortmund team-mate Lukasz Piszczek. Piszczek bombs forward from right full-back and fires over crosses for his buddy to get on the end of. Lewandowski is 3.929/10 to score at any time.

For Russia, Kerzhakov is 3.309/4 and Arshavin 4.003/1. The value may lie, however, with Alan Dzagoev, the midfielder who lived up to the hype with two goals. He is 4.1031/10.

Bookings

For a potentially combustible fixture, card fans will be disappointed to see the rational Wolfgang Stark taking charge as the ref. The animosity of the teams could spill over but one would believe Stark will nip it in the bud early. However, the German makes brave, and correct calls, so that may be why more than 45 points on bookings is as short as 1.434/9.