EFL League One & League Two

MK Dons v Crawley: Can the hosts follow on from Crewe's shock on Saturday?

MK Dons
MK Dons host Crawley in tonight's play-off semi-final second leg

Alan Dudman previews the semi-final second leg in the League Two play-offs with the MK Dons against Crawley...

  • Dons with three-goal deficit to overturn

  • Goals the way to go for Saturday night

  • Alan Dudman has a Bet Builder Tip

MK Dons v Crawley Town
Saturday 11th May, kick-off 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

There has been a massive shake-up in the Betfair Exchange Promotion market following Crewe's shock play-off win at Doncaster last night. The Alex were around 36/1 and are now 2.1411/10. It was a stark reminder of the lottery of play-off football as Crewe had no sort of form whatsoever against a team that hadn't lost a game in ages.

Promotion is there for the taking now with Crewe in the final.

MK Dons are 12/53.40 in the same market with Crawley, who hold the 3-0 advantage from the first game are the same price as the Alex.

MK odds-on in match odds market

Mike Williamson's side were odds-on for the Crawley game and once again are odds-on despite the heavy defeat in the first leg in west Sussex, and there will be nervous backers who locked in a bet on the Buckinghamshire side to progress, especially with what happened last night.

Both League Two meetings between Crawley and MK Dons in 2023-24 were home wins, with the Red Devils winning 2-1 in August and MK victorious by a 2-0 scoreline in December, and Crawley are a massive 15/4 to pull off another win.

The Dons have not lost back-to-back league games since Williamson took over at the helm in October, so at least that is on your side if you are playing on the 8/151.53 win this evening, and this is the club's sixth play-off campaign.

Scott Lindsay said after the Broadfield Stadium win: "Their bouncebackability is really good. Nine times they have lost under Mike and nine times they have bounced back and won.

"We know that they have experienced that already."

This is a very tricky market to call, as the Dons have been excellent at home all season with 14 wins at the MK Stadium with 48 goals scored and just four losses. Only Wrexham scored more at home (Stockport also hit 48).

But they are very short now.

Goals have been plentiful with the Dons

The Dons held a decent 1.62 xG at home in the regular season and considering their knack for scoring goals, a way to play on a home win is to include the Over 2.5 Goals here for a Bet Builder that pays around 4/51.80.

Ten of their last 12 all hit Over 2.5 Goals, and three of their last four matches in the regular season were very high-scoring games at 4-4, 3-5 and 4-1. In March the Dons were also involved in two 5-0s - a win and a loss.

This is against Crawley's 70 points this season - which was the fewest by a side to qualify for the play-offs in League Two since Blackpool in 2016-17. The Reds also conceded more than they scored on the road in the regular season with F36 A37.

MK need a miracle in the To Qualify market

With Crewe pulling off a sensational Wembley passage last night, MK Dons need an even bigger piece of divine intervention as they are 9/25.50 To Qualify on either ET and penalties, with Crawley at 1/71.14. Remember Doncaster were 1/1001.01 in that market and went out.

I think if you fancy the MK Dons to win here, it's better to play as an early goal will make the visitors nervous, two early goals will nerves even more on edge.

Gilbey the nominated scorer bet

Max Dean continued to look lively in the first leg and his pace was always bright. The young forward ran at Crawley's defence at speed on plenty of occasions and he surely will get a chance or two?

Dean has had a hand in 10 goals in his last six League Two appearances for MK Dons (6 goals, 4 assists) and there's a boost from 7/18.00 to 9/110.00 on the Sportsbook for Dean & Danilo Orsi to have 2 or more shots on target each.

Alex Gilbey for the hosts scored four from seven games at the back-end of the season and the 7/52.40 here for Anytime Scorer is the one bet in that market I'd like to take.

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.