EFL League One & League Two

League One and League Two Tips: Orient and Mansfield feature in 10/1 and 18/1 accas

Nigel Clough
Nigel Clough's Mansfield are the draw specialists in League Two this season

Alan Dudman went close to landing another treble last week and he has two more juicy prices for weekend trebles...

  • Orient upturn in form can net a draw

  • Mansfield tackle Magpies live on Sky

  • Alan Dudman goes for 10/111.00 and 18/119.00 trebles


League One

Leg 1: Back Cambridge to beat Shrewsbury

Cambridge somewhat let the side down last week with a 2-1 defeat at Burton on Monday night - thus scuppering the treble bid as the opening two League One selections had won, but I won't deviate from the U's this Saturday in the threadbare fixture list, as Shrewsbury are quite rightly 11/43.75 outsiders for this and hard to fancy.

The hosts are unbeaten in 15 home games against Shrewsbury Town in the Football League (W11 D4) since a 0-2 reverse in October 1974, and with that stat, we should feel confident in backing Cambridge at Evens, especially as the Shrews have been poor away from home thus far and have scored just once on the road.

Mark Bonner admitted his team didn't deal with the direct pressure of Burton last week, and his side lacked any sort of penetration at the Pirelli. But he did get a response in the second-half with more aggression. They had far more intent too and looked a proper team, and are certainly one of those set-piece teams that are a threat.

Cambridge need to cut out conceding the early goal, and if they can, aided by the form of Shrewsbury who have lost 10 of their last 11 away league games (W1), failing to score on eight occasions in this run (3 goals), should win.

KEY OPTA STAT: Cambridge have only failed to score in two of their last 18 home league games, though one of these was in a 4-0 defeat to Barnsley in their last such match.

Back Cambridge @ Evens to beat Shrewsbury

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Leg 2: Back the draw Carlisle v Leyton Orient

Carlisle have drawn three times from six games so far at home, and with Orient picking up their form of late, I like the draw outright for this one, and we can back either the 11/53.20 outright or the 7/42.75 in the 90 minutes to negate any late goal.

It could be close one here; as Carlisle have three 1-1s from the six on terra firma but the fact they've won only once in their last six will make them nervous against a team who have lost once in five under Richie Wellens.

Wellens pre 1280 .jpg

Leyton Orient are unbeaten in seven Football League away games at Carlisle (W4 D3) since going down 4-1 in January 2012 in League One and earned a tremendous counter-attacking draw (1-1) at Peterborough recently. I expect them to play more counter-attacking here again and try to hit the hosts on the break, who have a poor xG figure at home of just 1.11.

KEY OPTA STAT: Carlisle have won just one of their last nine home league games (D5 L3), beating Shrewsbury Town 2-0 last month.

Back the draw @ 11/53.20 Carlisle v Leyton Orient

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Leg 3: Back Under 2.5 Goals Lincoln v Burton

Burton have dramatically turned around their early form - and having lost five of their opening seven matches, Dino Maamria has galvanised his Brewers to embark on an unbeaten run of five heading into Saturday.

They were at their direct best against Cambridge on Monday, as they loaded the box and made the U's defend.

Lincoln are quite a dangerous opponent at Sincil Bank - winning three of their four so far conceding just once, so it's no surprise their xG and xA numbers are low at 1.01 and 1.38. They have won four of their last five home league games (D1), keeping a clean sheet in each victory.

The Imps have hit the Under 2.5 target six times so far both home and away, while Burton have only scored four times away from the Pirelli this season and have been involved in two 0-0s in the road.

KEY OPTA STAT: Burton Albion have won just two of their last 11 away league games (D3 L6), though one of these was a 1-0 victory at Lincoln in this exact fixture last season.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/111.73 Lincoln v Burton

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League Two

Leg 1: Back the draw Notts County v Mansfield

Saturday's early kick-off at 12:30 live on Sky Sports pitches a team providing tons of entertainment (Notts County) against one that keeps drawing.

Mansfield have drawn an astonishing eight times in League Two so far with three 0-0s and four 1-1s, and they they have to keep quiet a blistering attack that have scored 15 goals at Meadow Lane. I am backing them to do so, as Nigel Clough's team are hard to break down and have an xA on the road of just 1.27.

The Stags have conceded just four goals in their last 11 League Two games against Notts County (W6 D4 L1), and never more than once in a match in this time, and backing the draw outright can hopefully give us a decent price to tackle the 3pm games.

KEY OPTA STAT: Mansfield Town are the only unbeaten team in League Two this season (P12 W4 D8 L0). This is their longest unbeaten start to a Football League season in their history.

Back the draw @ 14/53.80 Notts County v Mansfield

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Leg 2: Swindon Town to beat Newport County

Swindon are one of the short prices for the weekend at odds of 7/101.70, and with 17 scored at the County Ground and four wins from five, it's hard to see anything other than a home win for this one.

Town's Jake Young is the joint top scorer in League Two with nine goals and he has also provided four assists - only Jodi Jones and Daniel Kemp have provided more (5 each), and he has to fancy his chances against a defence that have conceded four on the road this season to both Crawley and Crewe.

All of Newport County's last eight matches in League Two have seen both teams score, with 29 goals in total being scored during this period (12 for Newport, 17 for the opposition), and that's an angle to explore with the BTTS to bet, but that's 4/71.57, and I don't want to rely on the visitors for that bet.

KEY OPTA STAT: Swindon won this exact fixture last season 1-0; they haven't beaten Newport at home in back-to-back Football League meetings since April 1962 (run of six).

Back Swindon to beat Newport County @ 7/101.70

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Leg 3: Back Over 3.5 Goals Crewe v Tranmere

League Two is most certainly the division for entertainment with not only Notts County, but Crewe taking on the mantle of the Over 2.5 Goals kings, or indeed the BTTS princes.

The Alex have been in rich goalscoring form, but they also concede a few. At home they are F15 A8, and away are F13 and A13, and were back to their exciting best offensively and defensively last weekend with a 4-2 defeat at Salford.

It's no surprise the 2.5 price has gone now, but we can get 15/82.88 on the Over 3.5 Goals price as they have now scored 28 goals in their first 12 league matches this season, more than any other team in England's top four tiers, despite 18 other teams having a higher xG than theirs (17.45).

After losing seven of their first eight League Two matches this season, Tranmere Rovers have since lost just one of their last four (W2 D1) and if they avoid defeat to Crewe Alexandra, it will be the first time they've gone three matches unbeaten in the league since April.

KEY OPTA STAT: After their 1-0 win on New Year's Day this year, Crewe could enjoy back-to-back Football League wins over Tranmere for the first time since September 2002 (run of 3).

Back Over 3.5 Goals Crewe v Tranmere

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You can back the L2 treble @ 18/119.00 with one click here

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Alan Dudman's P and L 2023-24

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Alan Dudman

Alan is a long term member of the Betting.Betfair team and has been a broadcaster and writer for over 20 years.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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