EFL Cup Tips

Newcastle v Man City: Back Toon to take first-leg lead & 11/2 Bet Builder option

  • Paul Higham
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 2:00 min read
Carabao Cup betting tips for semi-final first leg between Newcastle and Man City
Paul Higham has an 11/2 Bet Builder in his Newcastle v Man City Carabao Cup semi-final first-leg betting preview

Paul Higham previews the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg at St James' Park, where he fancies holders Newcastle to earn a lead against Man City, and also has a 13/53.60 goalscorer pick and 11/26.50 Bet Builder to consider...

  • Get 4/15.00 on holders taking a first-leg lead

  • In-form Barnes to pick to bag a goal at 13/53.60

  • Get 11/26.50 on Newcastle player props Bet Builder 

  • Safe Sub is here for the 2025-26 season - read all about it!


Newcastle v Man City
Tuesday 13 Jan, 20:00 kick-off
Live on Sky Sports

Carabao Cup holders Newcastle will look for a lead in this first leg on the back on a 13-game unbeaten run at St James' Park - 11 of which they've won including a 2-1 victory over Man City.

Eddie Howe's side have looked more like Kevin Keegan's 1990s entertainers of late with goals flying in all over the place. They've won the past four after losing at Man Utd with 19 match goals in total - just in the last week they've played twice a home, beating Leeds 4-3 and Bournemouth on pens after a 3-3 draw.

Man City smashed Exeter 10-1 to end a run of three straight draws, including their last visit to the North East in a 0-0 draw at Sunderland - this will surely be world's apart from that one.

The Magpies are 9/43.25 in the match odds with Man City 11/102.11 favourites, and I don't expect any first-leg hesitancy here, Newcastle don't seem capable of anything but a shootout at the moment but that's a dangerous game against Pep Guardiola's mob.

The 13/53.60 draw isn't out of the question by any means, although you'd surely back the 10/34.33 score draw as there's just no evidence that a 0-0 could be on the cards.

Both teams to score looks nailed on and over 3.5 goals at 31/202.55 would be the pick in the over/under market. Stats-wise Newcastle have scored at least twice in all of their past 13 home games, while both teams have scored in seven of the last eight. 

But I think there'll be another brilliant Toon Army atmosphere, Newcastle love this competition and Man City have a huge Manchester derby looming four days later.

The hosts look a great price here to take a lead into the second leg at the Etihad.


Back in-form Barnes to bag

Erling Haaland played a half against Exeter so will start here and is 5/61.84 to score anytime, while Antoine Semenyo hit the ground running and is 8/52.60 to add another City goal to his fast start with his new team.

Nick Woltemede is an obvious threat at 15/82.88 but Harvey Barnes is the man in form for the Magpies having scored back-to-back braces at St James' Park in the last week. He's scored four home braces this season now, including one against Man City so at 13/53.60 anytime scorer he's the pick of the bunch to find the net on Tuesday.


Back 11/26.50 Geordie Bet Builder

And what about a semi-final Bet Builder - which has to include Harvey Barnes although with a slightly safer option of 2+ shots on target at 11/53.20 - which he's actually now managed in his last four games in a row.

That's probably worth a single by itself but we'll add to it with our favourite Brazilian player props duo of Bruno Guimaraes and Joelinton.

Bruno has been fouled an amazing 62 times this season - he's certainly got the gift of going down easy and at home with the crowd roaring for everything then he usually gets his way with the referees. He's been fouled at least twice in four of the past six games.

Joelinton gets away with all sorts, especially at home, but facing City he usually gets found out - giving away five fouls in the league meeting here in November as well as picking up a booking.


Now read our Opta stat & tip preview of Newcastle v Man City


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