Norwich v Millwall: Back excellent Sara to score at 5/1 at Carrow Road

• Norwich gung-ho under David Wagner

• Gabriel Sara excelling in opening two encounter

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Norwich v Millwall
Sunday August 20, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports

A stoppage-time penalty crushed Norwich's hope of securing a second successive Championship success to the start the new season. The Canaries took a 4-3 advantage into the dying embers of last weekend's trip to Southampton but Saints' late intervention at St Mary's ensured City only returned home with a share of the spoils.

Despite the disappointment, David Wagner was full of praise for his players after overseeing another entertaining effort. Norwich 2.0621/20 have now notched six goals across their opening two outings, generating 4.80 Expected Goals (xG), although the Norfolk outfit have also allowed 4.14 xG en-route to shipping five goals.

Millwall 3.052/1 head to Carrow Road with a completely contrasting style. The Lions were late 1-0 winners over Middlesbrough before suffering defeat by the same scoreline in stoppage-time of Saturday's match against Bristol City. Both contests have proven tight affairs with opportunities at a premium.

The two combined tussles have returned a total xG output of 3.42 - the lowest in the league by a distance - with only 31 efforts at goal arriving from inside the penalty area. Even so, Millwall are expected to set-up in their traditionally difficult-to-beat system under Garry Rowett here on Sunday, suggesting a potentially attritional contest could be on the cards.

Goals difficult to decipher

Norwich enjoyed the upper-hand in last season's match-ups, winning 2-0 at Carrow Road last August before pinching a 3-2 victory at The Den back in March. The Canaries have now scored Over 1.5 Goals in eight of their past 11 meetings with Millwall with a repeat available to support at 1/12.00 this weekend.

However, making a confident goals play remains tricky considering the polar opposite approaches from the two clubs. Over 2.5 Goals has been chalked up as a 17/201.85 shout yet just nine of the Lions' away days covered that mark in 2022/23, whilst 62% of Millwall's overall games as guests under Garry Rowett featured a maximum of two strikes.

Sara stands out as Anytime Goalscorer option

Instead, the 5/16.00 available on Gabriel Sara to score is too big to turn down. The Brazilian was named in the Championship team-of-the-week following an outstanding display at Southampton; the 24-year-old struck a majestic long range goal, and also served up an assist for Jon Rowe's header at St Mary's.

Alongside Kenny McLean, Sara is proving a real driving force and strong in transition in attacking moments. His ability to spring forward and athleticism to join attacks are crucial to how City want to play this season with the former Sao Paolo star also a key figure in the opening day win against Hull.

Sara has attempted three shots in each of his opening two outings, has a claim for set-piece duties, and should only improve after missing most of pre-season following summer appendix surgery.

With 14 players priced up shorter in the Anytime Goalscorer market, the Norwich ace offers excellent value for punters in a difficult game to deduce.

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With that in-mind, we can back Norwich to win, Over 1.5 Goals and Gabriel Sara Anytime Goalscorer at a bulbous 8/19.00 via the Sportsbook's Bet Builder.