EFL Championship

Leeds United v Blackburn Rovers: Back hosts to bounce back to form at Elland Road with 13/10 angle

Leeds Manager Daniel Farke
Daniel Farke's Leeds United have conceded three goals in their last 10 home games

George Elek from Not The Top 20 is back to preview Saturday's televised Championship clash between Leeds United and Blackburn, and worries for well-travelled Rovers...


Leeds v Blackburn
Saturday, 12:30

Live on Sky Sports Football

The Championship promotion race is less 'he who blinks first loses' and more 'he who stops blinking wins,' with Leicester, Leeds and Ipswich mustering just two points and no goals between them in midweek. One was conceded, a howitzer from Ryan Longamn from Millwall, which meant that 0-0 draws for Leeds and Ipswich were both an opportunity missed, but also a point gained on leaders Leicester.

The Foxes play Plymouth Argyle on Friday night, in a game which pits a side fighting off relegation against one trying to secure a return to the Premier League at the first time of asking. Should Leicester win that, and put four points between themselves and Leeds, with Ipswich one point above, this will turn from a must-win to an absolutely must-win for Daniel Farke's side.

Blackburn's 5-1 win at Sunderland on Easter Monday is now a distant memory, having shipped five at Bristol City in midweek without scoring. Their position is perilous, just three points above the relegation zone but with comfortably the toughest run-in of those around them. Sheffield Wednesday, Coventry and Leicester await John Eustace's side after this assignment, and it's not easy to see where they pick up the points needed to avoid the drop.

A key aspect of this game to look at is both sides' preparation coming into the tie. Leeds played on Tuesday night, at home, and although they won't be happy with the result, it won't have been a particularly taxing experience.

Blackburn, however, played 24 hours later, away from home, nearly 200 miles away in Bristol. They were sent home with their tail between their legs, and presumably wouldn't have got back until the early hours of Thursday morning, not much more than 48 hours before a trip to Leeds. It's hard to imagine that this won't give Leeds a physical advantage in a game where they already boast better players and a far superior points tally.

The midweek stalemate was the first league game Leeds haven't won at Elland Road in ten. They were poor on the night and didn't deserve any more than what they got, but were still very solid defensively, a trait which has been a key reason why they have been such a force this season. They've kept a clean sheet in seven of these ten home games, and conceded just one in the other three, showing an incredible consistency at preventing the opposition from creating goal scoring opportunities.

It's hard to see why Blackburn would cause them too many issues, having failed to score in four of their last five games. We can draw a line through the fact that they scored five in the other given how anomalous that result was with 11 winless away games surrounding it. They've been beaten to nil four of these, and this seems like the most likely outcome given the form of both sides and the fatigue that may plague Eustace's team.

Back Leeds to win to nil @ 13/102.30

Bet here


Now read Andy Robson's weekend Acca piece here!


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