Back goals at the San Siro says Mark O'Haire
Plus two more bets for Champions League semi
Back goals in Championship play-off clash
Inter 2.1411/10 v Milan 4.03/1, the Draw 3.45
Live on BT Sport Extra
Mark O'Haire says: "Eight of the last 10 Champions League semi-final second leg match-ups have featured Over 2.5 Goals 2.18 and there's no obvious reason not to support a repeat this midweek. Last week's meeting produced an Expected Goals (xG) output of 2.87 with 29 efforts at goal and 18 attempts arriving from inside the penalty area.
"Eight of the most recent 12 derby dust-ups have paid out for Over 2.5 Goals backers and with Milan looking to take a front-foot approach, as well as the potential return of Rafael Leao to the side, the Rossoneri will be confident of at least making a mark on the tie. Stefano Pioli's posse have scored in 15 of 17 clashes with fellow top-half clubs in Serie A.
"Meanwhile, Inter showcased their firepower in the reverse and can call upon a glut of in-form attackers that are capable of doing damage.
"Even so, the Nerazzurri did wobble in their quarter-final match-up with Benfica at San Siro when arriving with a 2-0 advantage - that encounter concluded 3-3 and a similar shootout could well be on the cards here."
Alex Keble says: "The pattern of the Milan derby followed exactly what has happened throughout this season: Inter Milan have won their last three meetings by an aggregate score of 6-0, and every time it has been the same story of a tactical mismatch.
"That is why the chances of AC Milan reaching the final are so slim, and why Stefano Pioli needs a total overhaul of his tactics to stand a chance.
"In a 4-2-3-1 formation, AC Milan looked to dominate the ball and play an expansive attacking game, but they did so with ludicrous decompression between the lines, with some 50 yards between the defensive and attacking players.
"It meant that, stretched so long, their two central midfielders were often entirely isolated and surrounded by five Inter players: the three centre-mids plus Edin Dzeko and Luataro Martinez, who both dropped to help swarm the middle."
Paul Higham says: "Inter had 16 fouls in the first leg, and have had at least 11 in their last nine while Milan have had double figures in eight of 10, so it's not exactly a one-off.
"So with such volume coming quite regularly we can look for a big one here so let's put together a four-fold with players with potential for giving away plenty of fouls.
"Lautaro Martinez should start up front for Inter, leads the team in fouls and has had 2, 3, 4 and 2 in four games against Milan this season.
"Team-mate Hakan Calhanoglu had four fouls in the first leg, has multiple fouls in five of his past six and 2+ fouls in all four Milan derbies this season.
"While both of those are big odds-on shots for 2+ fouls in this game, Nicolo Barella is a more generous 8/5 and Fikayo Tomori the pick of the prices at 11/5."
The Milan centre back was booked and had two fouls in the first leg, and with the "visitors" having to force the issue he'll have plenty of counter attacks to deal with.
Luton 2.01/1 v Sunderland 4.3100/30, the Draw 3.65
Live on Sky Sports
NTT20 says: "Luton have opened the scoring in all three of their meetings with Sunderland this season but have failed to win a single one (D2 L1), and their first leg defeat ended their 14-game unbeaten run (W8 D6).
"The Hatters haven't lost consecutive matches in all competitions since a run of three in August 2022.
"Sunderland have won just one of their seven away games in the Football League play-offs (D2 L4), beating Newcastle United 2-0 in 1989-90.
"The good news for Sunderland fans is that they have lost just one of their last 14 meetings with Luton in all competitions (W8 D5), a 3-0 loss in the League Cup in August 2007."
The motivation to attack is clear for the home side, needing at least a win of any kind to keep the tie alive beyond 90 minutes, and they should have some joy at home if Sunderland do commit numbers forward."
Aalesunds 7.87/1 v Molde 1.4840/85, the Draw 4.84/1
Tobias Gourlay says: "Molde started the new season slowly, taking one point from the first 12 on offer. But Erling Moe's men have won 3/3 since then, scoring 10 goals along the way. That run includes a home game with Aalesunds that they won 3-0.
"Since Aalesunds returned to the top flight last season, their meetings with Molde have finished 0-3, 0-3 and 0-2. This term too, the Tangos have hardly been dancing with the stars.
"They are W0-D1-L6 through the first seven rounds of the campaign, having failed to score a single goal. We'll take them to lose by at least a couple of goals this evening."