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Opta Supercomputer predicts Champions League winner
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Liverpool backed to win seventh title at 11/26.50
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Football... Only Bettor. Champions League 2025-26 Preview
With four Premier League matchdays done and dusted, it is time to turn our attention to Europe, as the Champions League gets under way on Tuesday.
Paris Saint-Germain are the holders following their historic 5-0 rout of Inter in the 2024/25 final, and Luis Enrique's men start their title defence against Atalanta on Wednesday.
Premier League heavyweights Liverpool and Arsenal were among the teams PSG vanquished who will hope to go further in 2025/26.
As the 36-team league phase begins, Arne Slot's Reds face Atletico Madrid in their opening match, while the Gunners visit Athletic Bilbao.
Barcelona take on Newcastle United on Thursday, with the Blaugrana's European draught now past the 10-year mark.
But who will get their hands on the most prestigious trophy in club football at the Puskas Arena in Budapest next May?
With the help of Opta insights, we have analysed the main markets and picked out our favourite ante-post Champions League selections.
Where else to start but with the holders?
PSG had yearned for a European crown since Qatar Sports Investments purchased the club in 2011. Luis Enrique was the coach to deliver the prize, and it was worth the wait.
PSG's 5-0 rout of Inter represented the biggest margin of victory in any European Cup or Champions League final, while it was just the third instance of a team scoring five times in European football's showpiece match.
Having completed a treble in 2024/25, PSG were also highly impressive at the Club World Cup, thumping Real Madrid 4-0 in the semi-finals and only coming unstuck when they were shocked by Chelsea in the final.
They also rallied from two goals down to beat Tottenham in the UEFA Super Cup in August.
PSG's thrilling attacking style - and recent experience in knockout games - should put them in contention again this term, and they are 6/17.00 to retain the crown.
But holding onto the famous old trophy has proved a difficult task in the past. Real Madrid's three successive triumphs between 2015/16 and 2017/18 remain the only instance of a team retaining the Champions League in the modern era.
Arrigo Sacchi's AC Milan are the last team other than Madrid to win back-to-back European Cups, having done so in 1988/89 and 1989/90.
It's worth bearing in mind PSG almost fell at the first hurdle last season, finishing 15th in the league stage, just two points above the cut-off. Had they failed to overturn a two-goal deficit to beat Manchester City 4-2, their European adventure would have ended in January.
Luis Enrique will be keen for a more serene start this campaign, but according to Opta's Power Rankings, they have the second-most difficult league-stage draw of all 36 clubs, with only Bayern Munich getting a rougher deal.
The holders must go to Barcelona, while Bayern, Spurs and Newcastle will all visit the Parc des Princes.
That fixture list may give punters some caution before backing them to top the league stage at 8/19.00.
The Opta supercomputer assigns PSG an 84% chance of reaching the last 16 and a 11% probability of triumphing again, though 43% of tournament simulations saw them forced into the knockout-round play-offs, as they were last term.
With that in mind, a price of 13/82.63 - with an implied probability of 38.1% - for Luis Enrique's side to finish between ninth and 24th in the league stage again may appeal.
The Opta Bet: PSG to finish 9th-24th in the league stage @ 13/82.63
Back PSG to finish 9-24 in league stage
Magnificent seventh for Liverpool?
There are only two teams ahead of PSG in the outright betting, with Liverpool and Barcelona both available at 11/26.50 on Betfair Sportsbook.
The Premier League champions have made a flying start to their domestic title defence, opening 2025/26 with four straight victories, but Champions League glory might be the prize they desire most this season after crashing out earlier than anticipated on the continent last term.
After Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike, Milos Kerkez, Jeremie Frimpong and Giovanni Leoni arrived in a spending spree that topped £400m, it is difficult to argue that the Reds' squad has not vastly improved.
And Liverpool's firepower is surely unmatched. Isak plundered 62 goals in 109 appearances for Newcastle, while Mohamed Salah's 57 goal involvements across all competitions in 2024/25 were the most of any player from Europe's top five leagues, and that is to say nothing of Cody Gakpo's consistent displays or Ekitike's fine start to life on Merseyside.
The main concern about Liverpool is their defensive balance, after they squandered two-goal leads against Bournemouth and Newcastle in dramatic early season victories.
However, Slot's team only conceded 0.6 goals per game in the Champions League last season (six in 10), the fewest of any club, while they gave up the fifth-fewest expected goals against (xGA) per game (1.14).
And when the tournament enters the knockout rounds, the Reds will hope to experience more magical Anfield nights.
Liverpool have only lost three of their last 18 Champions League home games (13 wins, two draws), with those defeats all coming against teams who have reached the final within the last two campaigns (Inter, Madrid and PSG).
It is a tempting 1/12.00 for any Premier League club to win the tournament, and the six English participants in 2025/26 are the most any country has ever provided in a single edition. The Opta supercomputer forecasts a 56% chance of an English winner (Liverpool 20%, Arsenal 16%, Manchester City 9%, Chelsea 7%, Newcastle United 3%, Tottenham 1%).
Across all 36 teams, our predictive model makes Liverpool favourites to lift the trophy, with Arne Slot's side doing so in 20% of tournament simulations, outstripping the 15.4% probability implied by their sportsbook price.
Back Liverpool to win the Champions League
Arsenal gunning for top spot
Barcelona are Betfair Sportsbook's favourites to win the league stage at 9/25.50, but with tricky trips to Newcastle and Chelsea in the Blaugrana's diary - as well as a mammoth clash with PSG on October 1 - there are at least some reasons for hesitation.
Barca also had a relatively quiet transfer window. Marcus Rashford joined on loan from Manchester United, but goalkeeper Joan Garcia is the only addition who looks to be a guaranteed starter.
Hansi Flick's side thrilled en route to the semi-finals last season, scoring 43 goals in their 14 matches. Only Barca themselves, in 1999/00, have scored more goals in a single edition of the Champions League (45).
They were moments from the final before conceding a 93rd-minute equaliser to Inter's Francesco Acerbi, ultimately losing 7-6 on aggregate in what was the joint-highest scoring semi-final tie in Champions League history.
The loss of Iñigo Martinez - who started 45 games last term - will surely weaken a defence that was breached 24 times in the Champions League in 2024/25, but Barcelona's fabulous array of attacking talent means they cannot be counted out this season.
Robert Lewandowski is third in the all-time Champions League scoring charts, and his goals-per-game ratio in the competition is equal with second-placed Lionel Messi (0.79) and better than that of all-time leading scorer Cristiano Ronaldo (0.77).
Raphinha consistently produced stellar performances in Europe last season and then, of course, there is Lamine Yamal, who will become the player with the most Champions League appearances while aged 18 or younger when he next takes to the field in the competition (currently on 23, level with Warren Zaïre-Emery).
The supercomputer, however, gives Barca just a 9% chance of becoming European champions for the first time since 2015, so there may be a better pick than the Blaugrana, who are 11/26.50 on Betfair Sportsbook.
Fourth in the betting - behind Liverpool, Barcelona and PSG - are Arsenal, who were beaten semi-finalists against PSG last season after a convincing 4-1 aggregate success over Madrid.
The Gunners allowed the fewest xGA per game (0.97) of any Champions League team last season, and between their matchday four defeat to Inter in the league stage and their semi-final versus PSG, they did not trail in any match.
Arsenal have conceded just 18 goals in 24 UCL matches under Mikel Arteta (0.75 per game). Among all teams to play 20 or more games under a manager in the competition, only Fabio Capello's Milan (0.38), Louis van Gaal's Ajax (0.63), Frank Rijkaard's Barca (0.68) and Ernesto Valverde's Barca (0.71) have conceded fewer goals per match.
The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal second favourites to win the competition, with 16% of tournament simulations seeing them end their seven-year wait for a major trophy. Their slightly longer outright price of 13/27.50 is attractive, while they are 7/24.50 to reach the final.
But given Arteta's team have earned a reputation as nearly-men, perhaps at this stage we can have more conviction when assessing their league-stage prospects.
According to the Opta Power Rankings, Arsenal have the third-easiest league-stage draw of all 36 teams, with only Pafos and Copenhagen having it easier. Aside from a home match against Bayern and a testing trip to Inter, the Gunners have winnable meetings with Bilbao, Olympiacos, Atletico Madrid, Slavia Prague, Club Brugge and Kairat.
Arsenal were only two points behind Liverpool in the initial phase last term, and the supercomputer gives them a 16.8% chance of topping the standings this campaign, making a price of 6/17.00 - with an implied probability of 14.3% - look tempting.
Back Arsenal to win the league stage
League-stage shocks are likely
The first edition of the 36-team league stage threw up some surprises, and punters will have a keen eye on teams that could gatecrash the top eight this term.
Atletico Madrid, Leverkusen, Lille and Aston Villa all made the top eight against expectations in 2024/25, with Real Madrid, Bayern, PSG and Man City among the big names to slip into the play-offs.
In the Opta supercomputer's league-stage predictions, only Arsenal (76.2%) and Liverpool (75.3%) are given more than a 55% chance of a top-eight finish, so many of the competition regulars may need to be cautious.
After the top four of Liverpool, Barcelona, PSG and Arsenal, plus Real Madrid, Man City are next at 17/29.50 in the outright market, with their 10.5% implied probability not entirely out of step with the supercomputer's predictions, with Guardiola's men given a 9% chance of lifting the trophy.
City are odds-against at 6/52.20 to finish between ninth and 24th as they did last season, or 7/101.70 if you fancy them to improve and make the top eight.
Real Madrid can never be ruled out in the outright betting in this competition, and they are 15/28.50 to win a record-extending 16th European crown. For the league stage they are 8/131.61 to secure automatic qualification and 5/42.25 to drop into the play-offs.
Bayern are 11/112.00 to lift the trophy, but according to Opta's Power Rankings, they have the toughest league-stage draw of any team. The Bavarians had to go through the knockout-stage play-offs last season, and they are 11/102.11 to finish between ninth and 24th in the league stage again.
Chelsea round off the top eight most likely winners at 11/112.00 to win the tournament, with prices of 10/111.91 to make the top eight and 1/12.00 to land in the play-offs.
With some bigger clubs at risk of missing the top eight, some outsiders could be worth backing to progress straight to the last 16.
Benfica - who have an attractive opening fixture at home to Qarabag - may well offer solid value, given they make the top eight in 21.4% of projections, a far greater likelihood than the 11.1% probability implied by their 8/19.00 price.
The Lisbon giants registered eye-catching wins over Atletico (4-0) and Juventus (2-0) in last season's league stage, also pushing Barcelona all the way in a nine-goal thriller that the Blaugrana won 5-4.
Bruno Lage's side face tough trips to Chelsea and Newcastle early on, but if they can dig out a result in either of those games, they could be serious top-eight contenders.
Benfica have won five of their last seven away matches in the competition (two losses), as many wins as they managed in their previous 23 (seven draws, 11 losses).
Dortmund's price of 4/15.00 to make the top eight also stands out, with the supercomputer giving Niko Kovač's side a 20.64% chance of doing so.
BVB were only behind for 13.2% of their total match time in the Champions League last season, with only runners-up Inter (6.6%) trailing for a lower proportion of their games. They have also made an unbeaten start to their Bundesliga campaign and have some winnable fixtures against Bilbao, Copenhagen, Villarreal and Bodø/Glimt.
Norwegian outfit Bodø are 9/43.25 to finish between ninth and 24th and reach the knockout-phase play-offs on their first appearance in the Champions League proper, having made a surprise run to the Europa League semi-finals last year.
But Belgian champions Union Saint-Gilloise are also 9/43.25, and that could be a prudent bet if the supercomputer's predictions are anything to go by.
They made the play-offs in 49% of Opta's tournament simulations after their domestic rivals Club Brugge did so last term, and games against PSV, Galatasaray, Marseille and Atalanta could offer them an opportunity.
The OPTA Bet: Benfica to finish top 8 in the league stage @ 8/19.00
Back Benfica to finish in the top 8
Kane stands out in stellar list of Golden Boot contenders
Since joining Bayern in 2023, Harry Kane has scored 82 goals in all competitions - 13 more than any other player from Europe's top five leagues (Erling Haaland has 69).
The England captain also leads the way for Champions League goals in that period, sitting three clear of Raphinha after netting 19 times in 25 matches.
Kane finished as the joint-leading scorer in the 2023/24 edition as Bayern suffered an agonising semi-final exit, level with Kylian Mbappé on eight goals. He then netted 11 times in their run to the quarter-finals last term - a single-season record for an English player.
Given his pedigree, Kane looks to be a prudent pick in the top goalscorer market at [10/1]. He should get plenty of opportunities, as Bayern created 4.5 big chances per Champions League game last season - the highest average in a single edition since 2019/20.
The players ahead of Kane in the top goalscorer betting are Haaland, the market leader at 6/17.00, Mbappé at 7/18.00, Lewandowski at 8/19.00 and Salah 8/19.00.
Among players with more than 10 appearances in the European Cup or Champions League, Haaland has the best goals-per-game ratio, averaging 1.02 goals per outing in Europe's premier club competition (49 in 48 matches).
The Norwegian's next goal in the competition will be his 50th, and he looks certain to shatter the record for fewest games to reach a half-century of Champions League goals. He has made 48 appearances to date, with record holder Ruud van Nistelrooy achieving his half-century in 62 games.
It was an Mbappé hat-trick that sealed City's elimination in the knockout-phase play-offs last term, and his seven Champions League goals were the joint-most by any player in their first edition with Madrid.
Since Mbappé's first Champions League campaign in 2016/17, only Lewandowski (73) has bettered his 55 goals in the competition. The Frenchman has overperformed his xG tally of 49.5 by 5.5 in that span, though Lewandowski (8.8), Haaland (7.3), Salah (6.9) and Kane (6.4) are among the players to overperform their underlying figures by a greater margin.
Mbappé's team-mate Vinícius Júnior is 40/141.00, but he only has three goals in 10 games under Xabi Alonso at the Club World Cup and in LaLiga.
Isak is sixth in the top goalscorer betting at 12/113.00, with Ekitike - who already has three goals to his name with Liverpool - available at 16/117.00. However, the possibility of Slot rotating in the league phase and the presence of Salah could be stumbling blocks for those selections.
Salah is just six goals away from reaching 50 for Liverpool in the Champions League. Only six players have reached that milestone for one team in European Cup/Champions League history - none of which were for an English club.
Raphinha shared the Golden Boot with Borussia Dortmund's Serhou Guirassy last season, netting 13 times in 14 outings, and the Brazilian is 16/117.00 to repeat the trick. Raphinha had 21 goal involvements in last year's tournament (eight assists), tying Ronaldo's single-season record from 2013/14 (17 goals, four assists).
Viktor Gyökeres has scored three times in his opening four matches for Arsenal, and he is 14/115.00 on the sportsbook. The Swede plundered six goals in eight Champions League appearances for Sporting CP last season.
With Betfair paying four places for each-way bets on the top goalscorer market, perhaps an outsider could be worth a punt? Chelsea's Cole Palmer is 25/126.00 ahead of his first Champions League campaign, and his brace in the Club World Cup final showcased his ability to affect the biggest games.
Two of the favourites to win the Ballon d'Or, Ousmane Dembélé and Yamal, are 14/115.00 and 20/121.00 respectively. Dembélé has 40 goal involvements in 37 games in 2025 (29 goals, 11 assists), ranking third for goals among all players from Europe's top five leagues.
But the presence of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola - all of whom are 40/141.00 - should mean PSG spread the goals around, while 21 of Yamal's 39 overall goal involvements last season were assists.
Inter captain Lautaro Martínez could tempt some at 33/134.00, while Guirassy is 50/151.00 to repeat his 2024/25 exploits, having set a record for most goals by an African player in a Champions League campaign (13). He has again started the Bundesliga campaign in magnificent form.
Back Harry Kane to be top goalscorer