PSG v Tottenham: Back 3/1 Neves to net in thumping win for holders

• More of the same dross from Spurs in attack?

• Joao Neves has scored six in his last six games

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PSG v Spurs
Wednesday 26 November, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports

Frank in a funk

Thomas Frank is feeling how tough it is to come up for air when managing at the top level. Arsenal away on the Sunday, PSG away on the Wednesday. That is as brutal as it gets in European football.

Frank's style of playing a compact mid-block, showing structural discipline and hitting vertical out-balls can look a smart tactic when results are good. But when the opposition carry an elite aura, Frank's structure and style becomes stodgy, lacking in attacking intent and ugly to watch. It happened against Chelsea. It happened against Arsenal. And the smart money is on it happening once again in this fixture against the European champions.

Frank's football relies on quick, high-value transitions to get his team out of a low block and to start asking questions up the other end.

Frank is finding out that elite sides give you fewer transitions and defend them expertly, which is leading to Spurs playing with low confidence and without incision to their play. To post a combined expected goals figure of just 0.15 from two games against Arsenal and Chelsea to a backdrop of just six shots - all low in quality - is a clear sign that this Spurs team aren't at present equipped to fulfil Frank's tactical desires. 

On what we have seen, Spurs don't have the punch to exploit PSG's backline. They do have a defensive structure that can frustrate but one that will surely be picked apart by a team who keep asking elite-level questions. PSG rarely let teams like Spurs hang around. They squeeze the life out of them and are a relentless beast when in the mood.

PSG fit and firing...unlike Super Cup

The teams met in the UEFA Super Cup in August when Spurs blew a two-goal lead to lose on penalties. But the circumstances were completely different. The French side came into the match with little preparation after a short summer break due to their participation in the Club World Cup.  

Under Luis Enrique, this team's xG supremacy (expected goals against - expected goals for) at home since Enrique took charge is +1.55 per 90. That is a monstrous figure.

Compare that with Tottenham's over the last 10 games, which sits at -0.85, and you have a potential for a mismatch of giant proportions if the game runs to form.

Those metrics point towards a very strong probability in this match of PSG winning by two or more goals. I'd argue those probabilities aren't matched by the markets which have PSG overpriced to cover their handicap.

We can get PSG on the Betfair Exchange with a -1.25 Asian Handicap start at 1.84/5 meaning we'll lose half our stakes on a one goal margin of victory for the French giants but any other win will result in us cashing a full stakes winner. The higher handicaps are also worth considering in what could turn out to be a nightmare for Spurs in Paris.

Neves has added goals to his game

Mark Stinchcombe made such a great case for Joao Neves to score at 3/14.00 on the latest Football Only Bettor Podcast, I'm rowing in with his bet.

Neves, long known as a metronome of midfield control, has quietly undergone a positional glow-up this season. A subtle tweak from his manager has pushed him 10-20 yards higher, and in betting terms, that shift is pure gold.

Last season Neves' average position placed him as the heartbeat of build-up but he's clearly operating further forward this season. He's popping up in pockets where he's very hard to mark and his finishing is very instinctive and accurate, hence why he's scored six times in his last six starts.

His underlying numbers too reflect a player trending sharply upwards in threat with his shots per 90 figure up to 2.7 this season - an increase of 1.5 shots per 90 from PSG's all-conquering 24/25 campaign.

And what's great about all this is that the market hasn't fully caught up.

When a player's on-pitch position changes to make him more of a goal threat but the market still prices him as the old model, you bet that edge until it has been eroded.

The edge is with us here at 3/14.00 on Neves in the anytime goalscorer market. A very nice slice of value considering PSG are being given an implied probability of 73 per cent that they win this game.

Now read Lewis Jones' on backing master of dark arts Harry Kane to win fouls