PSG v Liverpool: Back champions to inflict Reds' 16th defeat of the season

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Liverpool are in a sorry state under Slot

It went from bad to worse for Liverpool and manager Arne Slot as they crashed out of the FA Cup quarter-finals with a 4-0 defeat at Man City on Saturday, with all four goals coming in a miserable 18 minute spell across half-time.

With the Reds trailing leaders Arsenal by 21 points in the Premier League table, it means the Champions League is now the only chance of silverware this season. Liverpool are 17/29.50 to win Europe's biggest club competition while holders PSG are 5/16.00 to retain their title.

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Match Odds - PSG v Liverpool

Saturday's defeat against Manchester City was Liverpool's 15th loss of the season, their most in a single campaign since losing 18 under Brendan Rodgers in 2014/15. Ten of those defeats have come on the road, including four in their last five away games.

There is also a very alarming increase in defeats without first choice goalkeeper Alisson. In his 34 games this season, Liverpool have only lost six (18%). In the 14 games he's missed, that 18% increases to an enormous 64% with nine defeats with Georgian Giorgi Mamardashvili in goal, seemingly not installing the same confidence in the defence.

PSG, meanwhile, have been impressive at the Parc des Princes having won 14 of 19 games across league and Europe (74%). Therefore, it seems too good to pass up backing PSG at an enticing 1.804/5, with the Parisians potentially seeing this as an opportunity to wrap up the tie in the first leg.

In last season's meeting here, it was only the heroics of Alisson that meant Liverpool somehow avoided defeat as the Reds had just 30% possession and conceded 27 shots while having just two of their own.

The price of goals

Over 2.5 goals is priced at 4/91.44 with both teams to score also priced at 4/91.44. I'm not sure I would want to back either of those if last season's meetings are anything to go off with the away sides winning both games 1-0.

On the road, Liverpool have scored fewer than two goals in six of their last seven games and I wouldn't be confident at 4/91.44 with those stats that they contribute here.

Player value

With eight PSG players having hit double figures for goals and assists combined this season, it makes trying to pinpoint a bet difficult with threats all over the pitch.

An area of the pitch where they really stand out is down both flanks. With Bradley Barcola out injured, it is likely that Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will play as the left forward and Désiré Doué as the right forward. They are both huge threats and as a result Kvaratskhelia is being fouled 1.96 times per 90 minutes and Doué is being fouled 2.00 times per 90 minutes.

Full-backs Nuno Mendes and Achraf Hakimi are also on the end of opposition fouls with them being fouled 1.79 and 1.15 times per 90 respectively.

With Betfair's Bet £10 Get £10 on football bet builders and accas it makes sense to look at both of Liverpool's full-backs to be carded in a bet builder. Joe Gomez has picked up one yellow in his four starts at right-back this season and Milos Kerkez has been carded six times this season - four of those have come away from home.

Spanish referee José María Sánchez Martínez is averaging 5.20 cards per-game across his five Champions League matches this season, including four red cards - the most by any referee in the competition.

In Kvaratskhelia's 12 starts at left-forward, five direct opponents have been carded. For Doué, in his 11 starts at right-forward, three direct opponents have been carded. We can get 21/211.50 on both Gomez and Kerkez being carded.

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