PSG v Bayern Munich: Back Olise to help dream clash live up to hype

PSG v Bayern Munich
Tuesday 28 April, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports

Have PSG timed their push perfectly again?

On their way to a glittering treble and a first ever European crown last season, PSG moved through the gears as the season progressed. They nearly failed to qualify for the knockout phase of the Champions League, but a final surge in the league phase got them through. A penalty shootout victory over Liverpool in the last 16 felt like the catalyst, and they overcame Aston Villa and Arsenal before smashing Inter 5-0 in the final.

This season, PSG produced a couple of the league phase's most impressive displays. They put seven goals past Bayer Leverkusen at the BayArena, and they outplayed Barcelona in a 2-1 win in Catalunya. However, a strange collapse (they lost to Bayern and Sporting and drew with Newcastle) cost them a top-eight finish.

Again, it could be a Champions League win over Liverpool that heralds PSG's arrival at their top level. They were adequate against Monaco in the playoff, clinical against Chelsea in the last 16, but their first leg display in a 2-0 win over Liverpool was truly outstanding. They weathered an Anfield storm before winning 2-0 in the second leg too.

Despite having an unusually tough title race to deal with, PSG have few injury concerns. Fabian Ruiz has recently returned as a midfield option after a long absence, Vitinha is expected to shake off injury, as is Achraf Hakimi.

Kompany's vision has powered Bayern success

Bayern Munich's senior sporting director Max Eberl admits that Vinncent Kompany wasn't the Bavarian giants' first choice as coach. In fact, he probably wasn't even in the top four. Yet Bayern have stumbled onto an incredible solution, a coach who has swept away memories of the angst-filled Thomas Tuchel era and inspired a relentlessly attack-minded brand of football.

The word Kompany has consistenty used is hunger. If Bayern score three goals, he wants four, five or six. No let-up, no mercy, no time spent in the lower gears. Saturday's extraordinary 4-3 win at Mainz is a great example. A much-changed Bayern were 3-0 down at the break in a game they could afford to lose, but Kompany threw on Harry Kane and Michael Olise at half-time, and they helped turn the game on its head.

Bayern are 15 points clear at the top of the Bundesliga, they'll play a cup final against a Stuttgart team they've already beaten three times this season, but now the acid test awaits against the European champions.

Bayern have already been to Paris this season, and they won 2-1, despite playing the entire second half with 10 men. They have only lost two competitive matches this season - one was a 2-1 reverse at Arsenal in the league phase, the other was a shock 2-1 home loss against Augsburg. If you're going to beat Bayern, you almost certainly need to score at least twice, as they have found the net in every single competitive game they have played.

Bayern will be without versatile full-back Raphael Guerreiro, as he tore a muscle against Mainz and will miss both legs of this semi-final. Lennart Karl, Tom Bischof and Serge Gnabry are also out, so the front four pretty much picks itself, with Kane, Olise, Jamal Musiala and Luis Diaz ready to start.

Expect goals and Diaz to hit the target

The market expects this to be full of goals in a similar way to the Bayern v Real Madrid quarter-final, which featured 10 goals across the two legs, and I agree. Bayern will unapologetically play their game, looking to press high and commit plenty of players to the attack. Bayern are likely to score, but they'll also give up chances at the other end.

We can create a 2/13.00 Bet Builder by backing BTTS, Luis Diaz to have a shot on target and the Bayern keeper (probably Manuel Neuer) to make four saves. Neuer made a staggering nine saves at the Bernabeu against Madrid, and I'd expect him to come under fire again here as PSG launch plenty of counter-attacks.

Diaz scored and was sent off when Bayern visited in the league phase, and he is a shot machine. He's had at least one effort on target in 16 of his last 22 competitive starts, and he scored in both legs of the quarter-final against Real Madrid.

Olise can make his mark

There's an argument to be made that Olise is the player Bayern would miss the most in a major game. That might seem sacrilegious to write with Kane in the conversation, but Olise has delivered an astonishing 17 goals and 24 assists across the Bundesliga and Champions League, and you can add in a further three goal involvements in the DFB Pokal, taking the season total to 44 goals and assists combined.

We can back Olise to score or assist at evens here, and given that the French international has delivered a goal or an assist in each of his last five Champions League starts, that's a bet I'm happy to place.

Now read Paul Higham's guide to PSG v Bayern stats specials and props bets