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City have a wobbly record without Haaland
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Man City v Young Boys
Tuesday November 7, 20:00
Live on TNT Sport
Manchester City are doing what Manchester City do best: topping their Champions League group.
After three wins from three, Pep Guardiola's side are on the brink of qualification with two games to spare knowing a win on Tuesday will seal the deal. Guardiola's side are on course to win their Champions League group for the sixth successive season. They make it look so easy.
Saturday's 6-1 demolition job on Bournemouth took City's winning home record to an incredible 22 games with an aggregate score backdrop of 73-11.
Phenomenal.
It's the longest winning run by a Premier League team ever in all competitions and they are trading at 1/121.08 to make it 23 games on the spin against Young Boys.
In Europe, they are unbeaten in 27 home European matches (W25 D2) since a 2-1 loss to Lyon in 2018, winning 19 of their last 20.
Haaland injury opens door for Young Boys handicap play
There's a fine line between bravery and stupidity - and this bet won't be for everyone, but I'm confident that Young Boys rate as the value call in the handicap market. I'm happy to row in with the 1.9520/21 on offer for them on the Asian Handicap with a +2.75 start on the Exchange.
This means we'll cop a full return if they win, draw or lose by one or two goals. If they lose by exactly three goals, we'll get a half stakes loss and if City run riot by four or more then we'll suffer a full stakes loss.
My desire to give City a swerve revolves around Erling Haaland potentially being given the night off, owing to an ankle injury sustained on Saturday.
Explaining his reasoning for removing his striker at half time, Guardiola told Match of the Day: "We didn't want to take risks with him, he didn't feel comfortable. He'll be back maybe Tuesday but maybe next Sunday."
Haaland hasn't started in 12 games across all competitions since signing for Manchester City - and their aggregate score in those matches works out as 20-7. Not the usual tub-thumping numbers we expect.
In fact, they have lost three of their last six fixtures without scoring when Haaland isn't in the starting XI - in defeats to Southampton, Brentford and Newcastle.
Interestingly, if you were backing this Young Boys +2.75 handicap bet in those 12 matches, you'd have found a winner on 10 occasions with only a 4-0 win over Chelsea in the FA Cup and 4-1 thrashing of Liverpool in the Premier League covering that level of handicap.
Young Boys had their moments in the corresponding fixture that finished 3-1, too, managing to score and register 10 shots at goal in a game where they did manage to turn the City defence, especially in the first half.
Clean sheets have been an issue for City aswell.
Bournemouth's consolation strike on Saturday means Guardiola's side have conceded at least a goal in 14 of their 17 fixtures across all competitions this season. If Young Boys were to score, City would need to find the net four times in order for us to lose money on the advised handicap line. With the fixtures piling up, Pep's boys may just put the cue on the rack when one or two goals in front. Let's hope.
Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, is Sky Sports' resident betting expert - follow his Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.
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