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Barca's style could force Inter into a shootout
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Check out Paul Higham's Build Up tips at the bottom of the preview
Listen to Football...Only Bettor UCL semi-final second legs special
Inter v Barcelona
Tuesday 06 May, 20:00
Live on TNT Sports
Inter excelled at Montjuic
After a run of three straight competitive defeats without scoring, Inter were heavily doubted as they travelled to Barcelona last week, but they showed exactly why they have been so successful under coach Simone Inzaghi. The Nerazzurri played with intensity, they defended their box superbly in the closing stages, and they carried a goal threat throughout.
The return to the XI of French international Marcus Thuram proved crucial. He scored with a delicious back-flick in the very first minute, and his pace and dynamism allowed Inter to get up the pitch and get in behind Barca's high defensive line.
The return to fitness of rampaging right-back Denzel Dumfries was also welcome. The Dutchman put Inter 2-0 up with a stunning volley, and after Barca had come back to level at 2-2, he put the Italian champions back in front from a corner.
To come away from Spain with a draw against such talented opposition was a huge boost, and Inter maintained that momentum in the weekend's 1-0 win over Verona, which kept them three points behind league leaders Napoli in Serie A. Yann Sommer, Alessandro Bastoni, Federico Dimarco, Francesco Acerbi, Denzel Dumfries, Nicolo Barella, Henrikh Mkhitarayan, Hakan Calhanoglu and Marcus Thuram were all rested, while Lautaro Martinez is injured, and will miss the return leg.
Flick's gamble pays off
League games between the first and second legs of Champions League ties are always tricky, and Barcelona boss Hansi Flick pushed the envelope in the weekend's La Liga trip to the bottom side Real Valladolid. The German coach made nine changes from the 3-3 draw with Inter, and at half-time the league leaders were 1-0 down.
However, even if you start a game with a second-string XI, it doesn't mean you have to finish it with one. Lamine Yamal replaced the injured Dani Rodriguez in the first half, and his fellow superstar Raphinha was introduced at half-time.
With that kind of quality at their disposal, Barca turned the game around to win 2-1. Raphinha scored his 16th league goal of the campaign, and then Fermin Lopez grabbed the winner. It means the Catalan giants are still four points clear at the top of the table, and on course for the domestic treble after beating Real Madrid in the finals of the Copa del Rey and the Spanish Super Cup.
Seventeen-year-old Yamal continues to be an inspirational figure, despite his tender age. He is a true joy to watch, and against Inter at Montjuic he scored one of the best goals of this season's Champions League, weaving through challenges before bending an unstoppable shot in off the far post with Inter keeper Yann Sommer stranded. Yamal now has 11 goals and 15 assists across La Liga and the Champions League this term. Comparisons with the great Lionel Messi are inevitable, but Yamal has rightly refused to engage with that narrative.
Barcelona have injuries in both full-back positions, with Alex Balde and Jules Kounde both sidelined. Young left-back Gerard Martin struggled last week but is likely to deputise once again for Balde, while Eric Garcia might get the nod ahead of Hector Fort at right-back. Star striker Robert Lewandowski missed the first leg and is still short of full fitness, but in his absence Ferran Torres scored last week.
Another shootout is on the cards
Barca don't do cagey, and despite their defensive frailty, I imagine they'll still attack relentlessly. Inter will look to soak up pressure and hit on the counter, just as they did in the 2-2 draw against Bayern that saw them squeeze through to the semi-finals.
Ten of Barcelona's last 17 competitive games have featured four goals or more, and even though Inter are generally very solid defensively, Barcelona's gung-ho approach will force them into another slugfest, especially if they end up having to chase the game.
I'll happily back Over 3.5 Goals here at 2.166/5.
Yamal to sparkle again
If we're expecting goals at San Siro, then it's reasonable to expect the incredible Euros-winning teenager Lamine Yamal to be involved in one of them for Barcelona. Although he faded in the second half last week, he was exceptional in the first period, and the price of 11/102.11 for him to score or assist feels incredibly generous.
Back Laminen Yamal to score or assist @
Paul Higham's Build Up Tips:
Player to have more shots on target
All the Lamine Yamal hype may be a touch over the top, but he's certainly a special talent, with his biggest asset being he's not afraid of the big stage, and this is almost as big as they come in club football.
I think he'll step up again at the San Siro, so I'm backing him to take on Inter's Marcus Thuram in a To Have More Shots Match Up bet in the Build Ups section on the Sportsbook.
Yamal is 11/82.38 to win this one against the Frenchman, who is priced up at 6/42.50 to hit the target more than the Spanish youngster, so you can see it's a close call.
Thuram scored in the first leg with his 36th shot on target of the season, but he's had just seven shots on target in his last 19 games - during which he's not managed more than one in the one match.
So the stats heavily favour Yamal here despite Barca being the away side - as the teenager has had at least two shots on target in his last three starts, including two from six efforts on goal in the first leg.
Eight multiple shots on target games in 12 Champions League appearances this season suggest Yamal should take this one comfortably.
Back Yamal more shots on target than Thuram
Player to commit more fouls
This is an intriguing one with the stakes so high fouls could come from anywhere so picking contenders for a To Commit More Fouls Match Up is a tough one, but one I fancy here is Inter's Federico Dimarco against Frenkie de Jong.
There's not much between them in overall fouls this season, albeit with Dimarco playing a lot more minutes, but he's a big price at 5/23.50 to have more fouls than De Jong - a bet which actually landed in the first leg.
De Jong is on the away side this time so has that against him, but Dimarco operating at left wing-back will be up against Lamine Yamal and Inter will no doubt plan to disrupt the youngster from the start.
So the opponent and the gameplan trump the stats here I think making this one a decent value play.
Back Dimarco more fouls than De Jong